Cruz Warns Republicans Could Lose Up to 8 Senate Seats Without Stronger Turnout

Sen. Ted Cruz said Republicans could end up with anywhere from 45 to 53 Senate seats depending on turnout, and warned his party could lose every statewide race in Texas. Here’s what he said and what early voting data actually shows.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of October 30, 2026. Election Day is November 3. Texas early voting ends today.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told listeners of his podcast that Republicans could end up with anywhere from 45 to 53 Senate seats depending on how Election Day turnout goes, and warned that Democrats could win every statewide race in Texas if Republican voters don’t show up.

What Cruz said

On a Friday episode of “Verdict with Ted Cruz,” Cruz said 8 to 10 Senate races around the country are essentially tied. In a good outcome, he said, Republicans could keep their 53 seats or gain. In a bad one, they could fall to 45, a loss of eight seats.

He said he’s worried because Democratic turnout is very high, and argued that if only the votes cast early were counted, Republicans would lose badly. He urged Republican voters to turn out, saying there are enough reliable Republican voters in the battleground states to change the outcome if they vote.

On Texas, Cruz said the state’s races are extremely close and that Republicans could lose not just the Senate race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico, but every statewide race. He also said that while polls can sometimes lean left, the turnout data showing high Democratic participation is real.

Cruz had recently campaigned for Republican candidates in Georgia, Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Michigan and Iowa. His Senate office did not respond to The Hill’s request for comment.

Putting his comments in context

The Senate math. Republicans hold 53 seats now. A drop to 45 would mean Democrats flip eight Republican-held seats while holding all of their own. Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority. Fox News’ final Power Rankings, published October 27, showed Democrats favored in 48 seats and Republicans in 47, with five Toss-ups. (Our explainer on the Senate math.)

Early votes aren’t counted yet. No state reports early vote totals by candidate before Election Day. What’s available is who has voted, and in Texas, which has no party registration, analysts estimate partisanship from voters’ primary history.

What Texas early voting shows. Through the first week of early voting, voters with a history of voting in Democratic primaries made up about 35% of ballots and those with Republican primary history about 33%, according to Republican consultant Derek Ryan’s analysis. About 29% had no primary history or had voted only in general elections. Ryan called the Democratic edge unprecedented in his tracking; in 2022 and 2024, Republican primary voters led at this point.

Some caveats apply:

  • The Democratic edge has been shrinking. In Harris County, for example, the Democratic primary voters’ share fell from 47% on the first day to about 42% by the end of the first week.
  • Democrats are more likely to vote early. Surveys by University of Texas political scientist Joshua Blank found about two-thirds of Texas Democrats prefer to vote early, while Republicans are closer to evenly split. That means Republicans typically make up ground on Election Day.
  • Nearly a third of early voters have no partisan primary history, so their preferences can’t be estimated this way.

Total turnout is on pace for a midterm record. More than 6 million Texans had voted early as of this week, already more than all early voting in 2022. Ryan has projected final turnout near 2018’s 53%.

The Texas races. Polling averages show the Senate race close, with Talarico narrowly ahead. In the governor’s race, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49.2% to 47.1% in Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, and the forecast gives Abbott a 68% chance of winning. Cruz’s scenario of losing every statewide race would require Republicans to lose races where they’re currently favored.

Why this matters

Cruz has issued similar warnings before. In 2018, he cautioned that Texas could “turn blue” if conservatives stayed home, then won reelection by 2.6 points, Texas’ closest statewide race since at least 2000. In July, he said Talarico had a real chance to flip the seat. Warnings like these are partly an assessment and partly a turnout appeal. Both parties use them in the final days of a campaign.

What to watch

  • Texas Election Day turnout, which will show whether Republican voters close the early-vote gap.
  • The primary-history split in final early voting numbers, released after early voting ends today.
  • Statewide margins in Texas, including whether Abbott runs ahead of Paxton.

Sources

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