Trump’s Final Pitch Before the Midterms, and What’s at Stake for His Last Two Years

President Trump campaigned heavily for Republicans this fall and closed with an election-eve speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. Here’s what he said, how Republicans reacted, what final polls and early voting show, and why the results matter for the rest of his term.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of November 2, 2026. Election Day is tomorrow, November 3.

President Trump has made himself central to Republicans’ midterm strategy, holding rallies in states the party would normally expect to win easily and urging supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot. With final polls showing Democrats ahead in several Republican-held Senate seats, Republicans say the results will shape what Trump can accomplish in his last two years, and how much of the outcome is pinned on him.

The closing speech

On Monday afternoon, Trump gave his final public speech before Election Day at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, which he declared officially reopened after a renovation he ordered.

He spent roughly the first 20 minutes on the renovation and other Washington projects before turning to the election, according to CNBC and other outlets. He called it the most important midterm “in our lifetime” and urged his 2024 voters to turn out, saying Republicans would win in a landslide if even a good portion of them voted. He also acknowledged that the president’s party usually struggles in midterms. Later in the speech, he discussed immigration, the war with Iran, crime in Washington, and Democrats.

Trump repeated his claim that the pool had been vandalized. Federal prosecutors in Washington have attributed its problems to faulty workmanship, and charges against those accused of vandalism were dropped. The project’s cost has grown from Trump’s initial $1.5 million estimate to more than $16 million, according to public contracts cited by Forbes.

Trump was also scheduled to hold nine tele-rallies Monday, the Associated Press reported.

How Republicans reacted

Republican reaction to the speech was mixed, The Hill reported.

  • Critical: Several strategists said they had hoped for a broader closing message about the economy and turnout. One operative called it frustrating at a moment when the party needs to focus on turning out infrequent voters.
  • Supportive: Another strategist argued the setting was a way to reach a national audience and talk about crime and immigration.

The White House called Trump the party’s “best messenger” and “unmatched motivator.” The Republican National Committee said Trump has “barnstormed the country” for candidates who will advance his agenda, and warned that Democrats would “obstruct” it.

What the final polls show

The final New York Times/Siena polls, released November 1 and conducted October 23 to November 1, found Democrats ahead in all seven Senate battlegrounds surveyed:

StateDemocratRepublicanMargin of error
Michigan (D-held)El-Sayed (+11)Rogers[CHECK]
TexasTalarico 50%Paxton 43%±3.4
MaineJackson 51%Collins 45%[CHECK]
OhioBrown 49%Husted 44%±4.4
KansasHamilton 49%Marshall 44%±4.4
AlaskaPeltola 48%Sullivan 46%±5.0
IowaTurek 48%Hinson 47%±4.7

[CHECK: add El-Sayed and Rogers percentages and the Michigan and Maine margins of error.] Margins of error shown are Siena’s, which include design effects.

Most of those leads fall within the polls’ margins of error, which Siena’s director noted means either party could still win the Senate. Trump’s approval averaged 38% across the seven states.

What early voting shows

Republicans argue that their voters increasingly cast ballots on Election Day, so early numbers favor Democrats. Some data points:

Texas. Early voting set a midterm record. About 5.9 million Texans voted in person during the first 11 days, above the 5.1 million who voted early in all of 2022, and more voted by mail. [CHECK: confirm the final early-vote total, reported elsewhere as 7.7 million.] Voters with Democratic primary history narrowly outnumbered those with Republican primary history in the first week, according to Republican consultant Derek Ryan.

Florida. Registered Republicans have cast more early ballots than Democrats, but by a smaller margin than in 2022. As of October 29:

  • In-person early voting: Republicans led 972,000 to 788,000.
  • Mail voting: Democrats led 727,000 to 594,000.

In 2022, Republicans led in-person early voting by nearly 500,000.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) warned last week that Republican turnout hadn’t been as strong as he’d like and urged voters to get to the polls. Other Florida Republican officials said they expect strong Election Day turnout.

Why it matters for Trump’s final two years

If Democrats win one or both chambers, they could block or reshape Trump’s legislative agenda. A Democratic Senate would also control confirmation of judicial and Cabinet nominees, including any Supreme Court vacancy.

Republican strategists told The Hill that because Trump campaigned so heavily, he’s likely to receive much of the credit or blame for the results. Midterms have historically favored the party out of power.

What to watch

  • Early returns in Texas, Ohio and Kansas, where final polls show Democrats ahead in Republican-held seats.
  • Election Day turnout among Republicans, which both parties say will decide whether early-vote patterns hold.
  • Ranked-choice tabulation in Maine and Alaska, which could delay results.

Sources

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