As of October 24, 2026. Election Day is November 3.
Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied at 49% among likely voters in a Fox News poll of Maine’s U.S. Senate race. The day after the poll’s release, the Trump administration exempted several Canadian imports used by Maine farmers and businesses from 50% tariffs, relief Collins had asked for, and announced a national seafood plan that names Maine lobster.
The poll was completed October 20, before either announcement, so it doesn’t reflect any effect they may have.
What the Fox poll found
The Fox News poll, conducted October 16–20 by Beacon Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm, surveyed 1,689 registered voters, including 1,514 likely voters. Interviews were completed after the candidates’ October 15 debate.
| Group | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likely voters (1,514) | 49% | 49% | ±2.5 |
| Registered voters (1,689) | 50% | 48% | ±2 |
Both results are within the margin of error. Fox’s August poll, which surveyed only registered voters, also had Jackson ahead by 2 points, so among registered voters Fox’s numbers haven’t changed.
Where each candidate’s support comes from (subgroups have larger margins of error):
- Collins leads among independents (by 13 points), voters without a college degree (16), rural voters (7), men (4) and voters under 45 (6).
- Jackson leads among college graduates (by 23 points), suburban voters (18), women (5) and voters 45 and older (3).
In 2020, Collins won rural voters and voters without a college degree by 18 points each, according to Fox. Her narrower margins with those groups now are one of Jackson’s openings.
Enthusiasm and early voting: 79% of Democrats said they’re extremely interested in the election, compared with 61% of Republicans. About one in five respondents had already voted, and they favored Jackson by 40 points. A slim majority planned to vote on Election Day, and they favored Collins by 12.
Views of Trump and the candidates: 37% of likely voters approve of President Trump’s job performance and 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove. Fifty-three percent are concerned Collins votes with Trump too often; 46% are concerned Jackson is too liberal. Both candidates’ favorability ratings are slightly negative: Jackson 47% favorable, 49% unfavorable; Collins 47% to 51%. Only 12% said their family is better off financially than two years ago.
How it compares with other October polls
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | Oct. 16–20 | 1,514 likely voters | 49% | 49% | ±2.5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct. 13–14 | 1,200 likely voters | 49% | 47% | [CHECK] |
| Suffolk University | Oct. 8–11 | 500 likely voters | 49% | 47% | ±4.4 |
| Washington Post/George Mason | Sept. 30–Oct. 5 | 800 likely voters | 50% | 46% | [CHECK] |
| Marist | Oct. 1–4 | 1,505 registered voters | 51% | 47% | ±3.8 |
Jackson leads in four of the five, all by margins within or near each poll’s margin of error. Collins hasn’t led a public poll since a co/efficient survey in late September, the Bangor Daily News reported. The RealClearPolling average, covering September 23 to October 20, has Jackson ahead 48.8% to 47.4%. Decision Desk HQ gave Jackson a 56% chance of winning as of October 22.
Collins has outperformed her polls before. In 2020, she trailed in every final public poll and won by nearly 9 points.
The tariff relief
On October 23, Trump signed an order exempting a set of Canadian goods from the 50% tariffs he imposed on about $20 billion of Canadian products over the summer. The exemptions take effect October 30 and cover items including plywood sheets, certain paper products, machinery, refrigeration equipment, packing crates and boxes, and seaweed.
Collins said in a statement that she had spoken with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the cost of tariffs for Maine. She said many farmers and growers rely on Canadian equipment and packaging that is either unavailable from U.S. suppliers or can’t be replaced without significant expense, and that the relief would help blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed producers. She said she would keep pushing for a broader trade agreement with Canada.
The same order added 50% tariffs on a new list of Canadian goods, including carpet and certain valves, keeping the total value of affected imports at roughly $20 billion.
Reactions:
- Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, called it a “desperate, 11th hour attempt to save Susan Collins’ political career” and said it showed voters are rejecting the administration’s tariff policies.
- Jackson argued that Collins enabled the tariffs, including by voting to confirm the officials behind them, and is now seeking credit for limited relief.
The seafood strategy
Also on October 23, the White House released its America First Seafood Strategy, which says it aims to restore the profitability of U.S. fishermen, “especially Maine lobster fisheries.” It includes:
- A voluntary “U.S.-Caught Seafood” label to help shoppers identify domestically harvested seafood.
- Stronger import enforcement and regulatory changes for fisheries.
- $5 billion in Agriculture Department loan guarantees for modernizing meat and seafood processing, according to the White House.
The strategy builds on a 2025 executive order. It doesn’t impose new tariffs on Canadian seafood, and maritime outlet gCaptain noted it doesn’t announce new federal spending beyond the loan guarantees.
What to watch
- Early and absentee voting, which runs through October 29 in Maine. Early voters favored Jackson heavily in the Fox poll, while Election Day voters favored Collins.
- Whether the tariff relief registers with voters. No poll yet reflects it.
- Ranked-choice voting. Maine uses ranked-choice voting for Senate elections. With only two major candidates, it matters only if neither gets a majority of first-choice votes.
Sources
- Fox News, “Fox News Poll: Nail-biter in Maine Senate race” (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Bangor Daily News, on the Fox poll and other October polls (Oct. 22, 2026)
- Marist Poll, Midterm Elections in Maine, October 2026
- Newsweek, Suffolk University poll (Oct. 2026)
- Newsweek, Washington Post/George Mason poll (Oct. 2026)
- Kalshi News, Maine Senate polls (Oct. 16, 2026)
- RealClearPolling, 2026 Maine Senate
- PBS NewsHour/AP, “Seeking to help Collins in Maine, Trump exempts some Canadian imports from his 50% tariffs” (Oct. 23, 2026)
- Boston Globe/AP, Wyden statement (Oct. 23, 2026)
- Globe TV, exemptions, new tariffs and Jackson’s response (Oct. 24, 2026)
- White House, America First Seafood Strategy fact sheet (Oct. 23, 2026)
- WTOP/AP, $5 billion in loan guarantees (Oct. 23, 2026)
- gCaptain, seafood strategy details (Oct. 23, 2026)