As of October 21, 2026. Figures are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics unless noted.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending in September, up from 3.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported October 14. Prices rose 0.6% from August to September alone, and gasoline accounted for more than half of that monthly increase.
It’s the last inflation report voters will see before Election Day. The October figures won’t be released until November 10, a week after the November 3 election.
The numbers at a glance
| Category | Change over 12 months | Change from August |
|---|---|---|
| All items | +3.7% | +0.6% |
| Energy | +20.4% | +5.2% |
| Gasoline | +34.2% | +9.1% |
| Electricity | +4.4% | +0.2% |
| Food | +2.5% | 0.0% |
| Food at home (groceries) | +1.8% | −0.1% |
| Food away from home | +3.5% | +0.2% |
| Shelter | +3.2% | +0.4% |
| Used cars and trucks | −1.5% | +0.7% |
| All items less food and energy (“core”) | +2.6% | +0.3% |
Monthly changes are seasonally adjusted; 12-month changes are not.
Energy is driving the increase
Annual inflation was 2.4% in February. The U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on February 28, and energy prices jumped in March, when the energy index rose 10.9% in a single month. They eased in June and July, then climbed again in August and September.
| Month | Energy index, change from prior month |
|---|---|
| March | +10.9% |
| April | +3.8% |
| May | +3.9% |
| June | −5.7% |
| July | −1.5% |
| August | +2.1% |
| September | +5.2% |
September’s 5.2% increase was the largest since March. The gasoline index rose 9.1% for the month, also its biggest jump since March. Over the past year, gasoline is up 34.2%.
At the pump: AAA’s national average for regular gas was about $4.26 a gallon on October 21, down from about $4.48 a month earlier but about $1.22 higher than a year ago. Diesel averaged about $6.32, compared with about $3.62 a year ago.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for the world’s oil, has been largely shut down since the war began, and attacks on tankers have increased this month.
Electricity rose 0.2% in September after falling 0.2% in August and is up 4.4% over the year. Rising demand from new data centers has become a local political issue in many states.
Groceries held steady
Food prices were unchanged from August to September. Grocery prices dipped 0.1%, while restaurant prices rose 0.2%. Over the year, groceries are up 1.8% and restaurant meals 3.5%.
Individual items moved in different directions, based on BLS average price data:
- Eggs averaged about $2.27 a dozen in September, and the egg price index was down about 21% from a year earlier.
- Ground beef averaged about $6.79 a pound, down from $6.92 in August. The ground beef price index was up 5.4% over the year.
- Beef overall fell 1.0% from August to September.
Used cars
Used car and truck prices were 1.5% lower than a year earlier, but they rose 0.7% in September after increasing 0.4% in both July and August.
The Federal Reserve
Inflation has been above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for more than five years. On September 16, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since 2023. Its next decision is on October 28, six days before the election. Higher rates make it more expensive to carry credit card balances and borrow for cars, homes and businesses.
How prices are shaping the midterms
Voters rank costs as a top concern. In a Pew Research Center survey conducted September 28 to October 4, 74% of Americans said they’re very concerned about the price of gasoline and energy, up from 43% in January. Majorities were also very concerned about the cost of food and consumer goods (73%), health care (69%) and housing (66%).
Pressure on household budgets is widespread. A separate Pew analysis released October 14 found that 44% of adults had trouble paying for at least one basic necessity in the past year, including 71% of lower-income adults. Those surveys were conducted in July and August, before September’s price increases.
Ratings on the economy favor Democrats right now. In the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll (October 9–13), 21% of Americans approved of President Trump’s handling of the cost of living, and Democrats led the generic congressional ballot 52% to 44% among likely voters. In Pew’s survey, 65% said Trump’s economic policies have made conditions worse.
The issue shows up in individual races. In Texas, the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll found that the cost of living and the economy were the most common answers when voters named the most important issue to their vote. In Ohio, a Bowling Green State University poll found the economy and inflation were voters’ top two concerns.
Each party’s argument:
- Democrats tie higher prices to the Iran war and to the administration’s tariffs, and many of their candidates have made affordability the center of their campaigns.
- Republicans argue the price increases are temporary. At a CBS News town hall on October 17, Vice President JD Vance said gas prices will come down once the conflict with Iran ends. Vance also blamed the Biden administration for the conditions behind high gas prices, a point CBS anchor Tony Dokoupil pushed back on.
Some Republican candidates have acknowledged the political cost privately. In audio from a September fundraiser obtained by Axios, Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton named the war and fuel prices as the biggest drag on his campaign.
What to watch
- The Fed’s October 28 decision. Another rate increase would land days before the election.
- Gas prices through Election Day. The national average has eased from its late-September high, but remains well above last year’s level.
- The October inflation report on November 10. It will show whether September’s increase continued, but it comes after voters have cast their ballots.
Sources
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, February 2026
- FRED, Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
- U.S. Inflation Calculator, egg prices (BLS average price data)
- TokenPost, egg and beef price indexes for September
- AAA, national average gas prices
- NPR, “The Fed raises interest rates by a quarter-point” (Sept. 16, 2026)
- FedRateCalc, October 2026 FOMC meeting dates
- Pew Research Center, “Cost Concerns Dominate as Public’s Economic Ratings Turn More Negative” (Oct. 8, 2026)
- Pew Research Center, “Many Americans Are Struggling to Afford Basic Necessities” (Oct. 14, 2026)
- ABC News, ABC/Post/Ipsos poll (Oct. 2026)
- Texas Politics Project, October 2026 poll
- Bowling Green State University, October 2026 Ohio poll
- Mediaite, Vance CBS town hall highlights (Oct. 18, 2026)
- Axios, Paxton audio on the Iran war and gas prices (Oct. 7, 2026)
- Straits.live, Strait of Hormuz status (Oct. 14, 2026)