As of October 18, 2026.
Vice President JD Vance said Saturday that “of course there’s a chance” he won’t run for president in 2028. Speaking at a CBS News town hall in Flat Rock, Michigan, he said his family will weigh on the decision and that he won’t take it up until after the November 3 midterm elections.
Vance leads early polling for the 2028 Republican nomination. He has not said he’s running, and neither has his closest rival in the polls, Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
What Vance said
CBS Evening News anchor Tony Dokoupil, who moderated the hour-long town hall, asked Vance directly whether there was a chance he wouldn’t run. Vance said there was and pointed to his family: the couple has four young children, and he said his wife, second lady Usha Vance, has never loved politics, though she loves public service.
He also described himself as a procrastinator on big life decisions. Asked whether he and his wife were already discussing 2028, he said they weren’t, and that whenever the subject comes up, they agree to figure it out after the midterms. “Anything could happen, man,” he said.
The Vances’ fourth child, Alec, was born on July 19. They also have two sons, Ewan, 9, and Vivek, 6, and a daughter, Mirabel, 4.
Usha Vance’s view
In a March interview with NBC News, Usha Vance said she isn’t involved in her husband’s work in any professional sense and that there’s no expectation the two will agree on everything. Asked about her politics, she noted that some of her views fit comfortably on one side and others are more idiosyncratic. She also said then that she’d have a better sense of her husband’s 2028 thinking in 2027.
Where the 2028 polling stands
Vance leads the RealClearPolling average of national 2028 Republican primary polls, which covers surveys conducted from July 19 to October 6:
| Candidate | RCP average |
|---|---|
| JD Vance | 39.1% |
| Marco Rubio | 23.8% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 11.1% |
| Ron DeSantis | 7.3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4.6% |
| Nikki Haley | 3.8% |
Vance leads every poll in the average, but the size of his lead varies widely. A July Emerson College poll had him ahead of Rubio by just 1 point, 39% to 38%, while a September Big Data Poll had him up by 22. The polls also test different lists of candidates. Trump Jr. isn’t included in some of them and reached 24% in a September Harvard-Harris poll, so his average rests on fewer surveys.
Polls this far ahead of the first primaries mostly measure name recognition and early impressions, and they can shift a lot once candidates actually enter the race.
Trump and Rubio on the succession
In August 2025, President Trump said Vance was “most likely” his heir apparent, while adding that it was too early to talk about it. He suggested Vance and Rubio could join forces on a future ticket. Rubio said around the same time that Vance would be a great nominee if he decided to run, and that he’d be satisfied if secretary of state turned out to be the peak of his career.
The rest of the town hall
Most of the hour focused on issues other than 2028. Vance faced questions from Dokoupil and audience members about gas prices, the Iran war, immigration enforcement and corruption.
- Gas prices and Iran. Vance said gas prices will come down once the conflict with Iran ends. Dokoupil pressed him on comments he made in Michigan in March describing high gas prices as temporary.
- The economy. Vance argued the administration’s economic and Iran policies will pay off over time. He attributed the country’s economic struggles to a long, bipartisan failure to invest in American workers and manufacturing.
- Corruption. Asked about polling showing voter concern that Trump is putting his business interests first, Vance said Washington is a corrupt town but that he has seen no evidence of the president taking part in it.
The midterm connection
Vance said his priority now is helping Republicans keep control of Congress. In Michigan, that includes campaigning for former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for an open U.S. Senate seat. Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in one of the closest Senate races in the country. Recent October polls show El-Sayed narrowly ahead, including a 48% to 46% lead among likely voters in an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 9–10 (margin of error ±2.83).
What to watch
- A decision after November 3. Vance has tied his timeline to the midterms, and his wife said in March to expect more clarity in 2027.
- Rubio’s plans. Rubio is second in the polling average and has previously deferred to Vance.
- Whether anyone else moves first. With the two leading names waiting, an early entrant could reshape the field.
Sources
- CBS News, “Things That Matter: A Town Hall With Vice President JD Vance” (video)
- CBS News via Yahoo, “7 highlights from JD Vance’s CBS News town hall” (Oct. 17, 2026)
- Mediaite, town hall highlights (Oct. 18, 2026)
- Washington Examiner, “Vance says he’ll ‘have to make a decision’ on 2028 presidential run after midterm elections”
- RealClearPolling, 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination
- CBS News, “Trump says Vance is ‘most likely’ his heir apparent” (Aug. 2025)
- NBC News, Usha Vance interview (March 2026)
- The Hill, on Usha Vance’s NBC interview (March 30, 2026)
- Washington Examiner, birth of Alec Vance (July 19, 2026)
- Newsweek, Michigan Senate race polls
- Political Wire, InsiderAdvantage Michigan poll (Oct. 11, 2026)