Trump Blames Cornyn and Rove as Paxton Trails Talarico in Texas Senate Race

As early voting opens in Texas, President Trump says Sen. John Cornyn and Karl Rove would be to blame if Ken Paxton loses. Here’s what each side says, what the leaked Paxton recordings show, where the money and polls stand, and why there’s been no debate.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of October 19, 2026, the first day of early voting in Texas. Election Day is November 3.

President Trump said last week that if Republican Ken Paxton loses Texas’ U.S. Senate race, Sen. John Cornyn and GOP strategist Karl Rove will be to blame. The comments came as polls show Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead and Republicans debate why a seat in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988 is in play.

What Trump said

In a Truth Social post on October 15, Trump accused Cornyn and Rove of “doing everything possible to make it hard” for Paxton to win. He called them weak and ineffective, said they had opposed him throughout his career, and urged Cornyn’s former supporters to switch to Paxton. He did not say what specific actions he was referring to.

The background

Cornyn lost the Republican nomination to Paxton in a May runoff after Trump endorsed Paxton. Cornyn has not endorsed Paxton or campaigned with him. In August, he told The Texas Tribune he would not move money to Paxton’s campaign and called him a poor campaigner.

Rove, a longtime Texas GOP strategist and adviser to President George W. Bush, has not said whether he’ll vote for Paxton. At the Texas Tribune Festival in September, he said the Senate race would be over if Cornyn had won the primary, and he pointed to allegations aired at Paxton’s 2023 impeachment trial, which ended in acquittal. Separately, Rove said in September that he’ll vote for Democrat Jon Rosenthal for the Texas Railroad Commission over Republican Bo French, citing French’s social media posts about University of Texas students. That endorsement is in the railroad commission race, not the Senate race.

Cornyn’s allies pushed back. Brendan Steinhauser, who managed Cornyn’s 2014 campaign, told The Hill that Trump’s post was an attempt to get ahead of a possible loss, and said that if Cornyn had that much influence he would have won his own primary.

The leaked recordings

Over two weeks, three outlets published audio from a private September 24 fundraiser in Washington. Each was provided by an attendee who opposes Paxton’s campaign.

  • The New York Times (Sept. 30): Asked whether “he” was a drag on the campaign, Paxton said the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas had lowered Republicans’ poll numbers. His campaign called the story manipulated and said its polling had improved since early September.
  • Politico (Oct. 5): Paxton said he had never felt less control over a campaign and that messaging was coming from Washington. His campaign said he was referring to independent super PACs, which campaigns can’t legally coordinate with.
  • Axios (Oct. 7): Asked what was dragging his campaign, Paxton named the Iran war and fuel prices rather than tariffs, and called affordability the campaign’s biggest problem. His campaign called it a “non-story” and said Paxton would help the president lower prices.

The money

Campaign fundraising, third quarter (July–September):

RaisedCash on hand, Sept. 30
James Talarico (D)$64 million$14.6 million
Ken Paxton (R)$18 million$4.9 million

Both figures are as reported by the campaigns. Talarico’s campaign says his total is a record for a Senate candidate in a single quarter; Paxton’s $18 million, which includes two affiliated committees, was his best quarter.

Outside spending has favored Paxton:

  • Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, the main Senate Republican super PAC, in two September contributions. Each time, the group transferred the same amount the next day to Texas PAC, a super PAC backing Paxton, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
  • MAGA Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC, reported a $10 million ad buy on September 5, split between ads supporting Paxton and ads opposing Talarico.

Total advertising in the race has passed $500 million, according to the tracking firm AdImpact. CBS News, citing AdImpact, reported that about $368 million of that came from Republicans and $132 million from Democrats.

The polls and forecasts

Talarico leads narrowly in the averages, and both the race ratings below call it a toss-up:

  • Decision Desk HQ rates the race a toss-up and gives Talarico a 54% chance of winning, as of October 18. Its polling average has Talarico at 49.1% and Paxton at 47.0%.
  • RealClearPolitics has Talarico ahead by 2.2 points in polls conducted September 24 to October 14, according to CBS News.

For a closer look at individual polls, see our October Texas Senate poll roundup.

Trump carried Texas in all three of his presidential races, by about 14 points in 2024. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.

Abbott’s role

Gov. Greg Abbott, who is running for a fourth term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, did not attend Trump’s October 7 rally for Paxton in San Antonio, citing events already scheduled that day. He praised Trump’s ability to turn out the Republican base. Some Republicans have argued that Abbott’s coattails could decide the Senate race.

No debate

Paxton has not accepted any debate invitations, though his campaign said in July that he would debate. He did not debate his opponents in any of his three races for attorney general. Talarico has accepted at least four invitations and also challenged Paxton to a debate on Fox News.

On October 7, after Talarico left the campaign trail with the flu, Trump posted that Talarico should “immediately report to a debate stage” against Paxton. Talarico replied that he would. On October 14, Talarico held a 90-minute CNN and Jubilee town hall in Fort Worth; CNN said Paxton was invited to a similar event and did not take part. Paxton launched an 18-day bus tour across the state on October 17.

Trump has also publicly commented on Paxton’s appearance, saying at several events in September that people might not like the way Paxton dresses or talks, while calling him one of the best attorneys general in the country. Paxton responded that Texas is a casual place in the summer.

What to watch

  • Early voting turnout, which began today and runs through October 30.
  • Whether outside money moves the polls. Republican groups have far outspent Democrats on ads since September, while Talarico’s campaign has outraised Paxton’s.
  • Whether Paxton agrees to a debate before November 3.

Sources

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