PA-10 Poll: Stelson, Perry in Rematch, Within the Margin of Error

A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey of Pennsylvania’s 10th District has Democrat Janelle Stelson at 49% and Republican Rep. Scott Perry at 46%, inside the poll’s margin of error. Here’s what the poll shows, what it doesn’t, and how the same pollster did in this race two years ago.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of October 17, 2026. Every number below names its pollster, dates and margin of error.

Democrat Janelle Stelson has 49% and Republican Rep. Scott Perry has 46% in a new poll of Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District from Susquehanna Polling and Research, a Harrisburg-based firm. The 3-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error, and 4% of voters are undecided.

The race is a rematch of 2024, when Perry won by 5,133 votes, 50.6% to 49.4%. It’s one of several Pennsylvania House races that could decide which party controls the chamber after the November 3 election.

About the poll

Susquehanna surveyed 300 likely voters in the district from October 5 to 11. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The 49% and 46% figures include voters who lean toward a candidate.

Two things to keep in mind:

  • The sample is small. With 300 respondents, the margin of error is large. Each candidate’s true support could be several points higher or lower than reported.
  • It was taken before the debate. The candidates’ only debate was on October 14, after the poll finished.

How this pollster did in 2024

Susquehanna also polled this race two years ago. In October 2024, it found Stelson leading Perry 48% to 39%, with 13% undecided, among 300 likely voters with a margin of error of about 5 points. Perry won by just over a point.

That doesn’t mean this year’s poll is wrong. Single district polls with small samples carry wide uncertainty, and 2024’s large undecided share left room for movement. But it’s a reason to treat a 3-point lead with caution.

Other polls of the race

PollsterField datesSampleStelson (D)Perry (R)Margin of error
Susquehanna Polling and ResearchOct. 5–11300 likely voters49%46%±5.6
Franklin & Marshall CollegeSept. 9–20[CHECK: 378 or 390] registered voters47%44%[CHECK]
Normington Petts (Stelson campaign poll)Apr. 20–23400 registered voters51%45%[CHECK]

[CHECK: Decision Desk HQ lists the Franklin & Marshall result as 46% to 42%; local news reports give 47% to 44%. Confirm against F&M’s release, which may report figures with and without leaners.]

The April poll was commissioned by Stelson’s campaign. Campaign polls are often released selectively, so they’re less reliable than independent surveys.

What forecasters say

Decision Desk HQ rates the race Lean Democratic and gives Stelson a 69% chance of winning, as of October 17. Its forecast projects about a 3-point margin. Polls make up only 11% of its model for this race; most of the weight goes to structural factors, including the national environment, incumbency and fundraising.

The candidates

Scott Perry has represented the district since 2013. He chaired the House Freedom Caucus, a group of the chamber’s most conservative members, from January 2022 to January 2024. After the 2020 election, he voted against certifying Pennsylvania’s electoral votes for Joe Biden. In 2022, the FBI seized his phone as part of a federal investigation into efforts to overturn the 2020 election. At the debate, Perry said he was never accused of anything in that investigation and that he was targeted.

This year, Perry criticized the Senate for leaving on recess without passing the SAVE America Act, an elections bill President Trump has prioritized that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote. He also co-sponsored a resolution, introduced by Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas), to repeal the 17th Amendment, which would return the election of U.S. senators to state legislatures.

Janelle Stelson worked at WGAL-TV, the NBC affiliate in Lancaster, for 26 years, most of them as an anchor, before leaving in September 2023. She is a former registered Republican. In 2024, Republicans criticized her for living outside the district; she now rents a home in Camp Hill, in Cumberland County, inside the district.

Fundraising. Through September 30, Stelson had raised about $8.7 million and Perry about $6.5 million, according to Federal Election Commission data compiled by Decision Desk HQ.

The debate

Perry and Stelson met on October 14 at the ABC27 studio in Harrisburg for their only debate of the campaign.

  • Iran war and fuel prices. Stelson said the war in Iran is driving up fuel costs, especially diesel, and criticized Perry for supporting it. Perry argued diesel prices are tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine rather than Iran.
  • Health care. Stelson said the Medicaid cuts in President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will cost thousands of district residents their coverage and strain hospitals. Perry defended his vote, saying the law targets waste and fraud in Medicaid.
  • 2020 election. Stelson called Perry an architect of the January 6 attack. Perry called that a lie and said he had nothing to do with it.

What to watch

  • The first post-debate poll. None of the polls above reflect the October 14 debate.
  • Undecided voters. Only 4% are undecided in Susquehanna’s poll, fewer than the 13% in its October 2024 survey, so there’s less room for late movement.
  • Turnout in Dauphin County. Stelson won Dauphin County, which cast the most votes in the district, by 9 points in 2024, while Perry carried the Cumberland and York County portions of the district. Her margin there is likely to be a key indicator on election night.

Sources

Spot an error? We correct mistakes openly. Read our corrections policy or tell us what we got wrong.

More from Election Wire