Democrats Could Lose Senate Majority in 2024

2024 is set to be a daunting year for Democrats who will be challenged in the elections, given the number of Senate seats they’ll be defending.

Of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs, Democrats are defending 23, which puts them at risk of losing the 51-seat majority.

Their majority is at even greater risk, given that Trump won three of the states up for grabs in 2020. The states — West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana — were all carried by Trump by at least eight points in 2020.

Yet, for Republicans to win these states, they’ll have to put up a heck of a fight, as each state has incumbent Democratic Senators with enough crossover appeal to win over voters in a reelection race.

Republicans in these states are expected to have messy primary races, which could weaken their chances heading into a general election.

Several battleground states are also on the line in the 2024 elections, including Nebraska, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska.

Considering these races will overlap with the Presidential race, each is likely to receive outsized attention, with an influx of high-profile campaign visits likely to make these races more connected to the national crosscurrents.

Democrats’ only chances of offsetting their potential losses are limited. Texas is firmly a red-leaning state, while Florida, formerly considered a swing state, has become entrenched as a GOP-led state.

Florida’s Republican Senator Rick Scott has repeatedly had razor-thin contests but has managed to win all of them. In 2018, a particularly Democratic-friendly year, Texas Senator Ted Cruz faced a significant challenge from Beto O’Rourke but managed to win reelection.

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