As of November 6, 2026. Prediction market prices change constantly; figures below are from November 5–6.
Republicans’ midterm losses have started an early debate over who leads the party after President Trump leaves office in January 2029. On prediction markets, where traders bet on outcomes, Vice President JD Vance remains the favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination. The biggest mover has been Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has jumped into third place.
No Republican has announced a 2028 campaign.
The markets
| Potential candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | ~38% | 34% |
| Marco Rubio | ~19% | 22% |
| Ron DeSantis | ~13% | 18% |
| Tucker Carlson | ~3% | — |
Polymarket and Kalshi figures as reported by DeFi Rate on November 6.
Before Election Day, DeSantis traded at about 3 to 5% on both markets. He rose to about 13 to 16% on Polymarket after the results, while Vance briefly fell to about 31% before recovering to near his pre-election level, according to The Hill and other trackers.
Prediction markets reflect bettors’ expectations, not polls of voters, and can move quickly on news. The first nominating contests are more than a year away.
JD Vance
The vice president has long been seen as Trump’s likely successor, and Trump has privately told donors he wants Vance to follow him, The Washington Post reported in August.
After the election, Vance posted a lengthy statement on X blaming the losses on the Iran war: “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.” He cited a pollster’s finding that 2024 Trump voters who switched to Democrats wanted four things: an end to the war, a focus on the cost of living, an “America First” approach, and a change in the U.S. relationship with Israel.
Trump’s response: Asked about Vance’s post, Trump said it was “largely true” but that the war was worth it. Donald Trump Jr. endorsed the post.
The challenge: Vance opposed the war privately but served in the administration that launched it, and he campaigned heavily for Republicans this fall, including in Ohio, where Democrats won the races for governor and Senate. He has said he’ll discuss a 2028 run with his family after the midterms.
Marco Rubio
The secretary of state, who also serves as national security adviser, has said he has “no plans at this time” to run and that he would not run if Vance does. He spent relatively little time on the campaign trail this fall. His home state of Florida was a rare Republican bright spot Tuesday, re-electing Sen. Ashley Moody and electing Byron Donalds governor.
Ron DeSantis
The term-limited Florida governor ran for president in 2024 and dropped out before the New Hampshire primary after losing Iowa to Trump. With no role in the administration, he has more room than Vance or Rubio to criticize its decisions.
At a press conference Wednesday, DeSantis called the results “close to an extinction-level event” for Republicans in many parts of the country and said the party was in a “deep hole.” He pointed to losses in Texas and Ohio, and predicted it would be difficult for Republicans to win back Congress in 2028.
Others mentioned
- Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host, has a large conservative audience and opposed the Iran war from the start. He has also been sharply critical of Israel, drawing accusations of antisemitism from some critics. He hasn’t said he’s interested in running for office.
- Donald Trump Jr. is popular with Trump’s base but has never held office. He has signaled agreement with Vance’s post-election analysis.
What to watch
- Whether Vance announces his plans, and whether Rubio’s position changes.
- How Republicans in Congress respond to the war and to Democratic investigations.
- Early 2028 polling of Republican primary voters, which will be a better guide than betting markets once it starts.
Sources
- DeFi Rate, 2028 Republican nominee odds (Nov. 6, 2026)
- DeFi Rate, “Ossoff Leads 2028 Markets as Midterm Fallout Opens Republican Race” (Nov. 6, 2026)
- The Hill, Morning Report on DeSantis and Vance (Nov. 6, 2026)
- Townhall, post-election market moves (Nov. 4, 2026)
- Al Jazeera, Vance’s post on the Iran war (Nov. 4, 2026)
- JNS, full text of Vance’s four reasons (Nov. 4, 2026)
- SAN, Trump calls Vance’s post “largely true” (Nov. 4, 2026)
- Daily Beast, Trump Jr. reaction (Nov. 4, 2026)
- FOX 13 Tampa, DeSantis press conference (Nov. 4, 2026)
- Newsweek, DeSantis remarks and market odds (Nov. 4, 2026)
- ZeroHedge, Florida results and Rubio’s deferral to Vance (Nov. 5, 2026)
- Megyn Kelly/Washington Post report, Trump tells donors to back Vance (Aug. 7, 2026)
- Just the News, Rubio: “no plans at this time” (Sept. 10, 2026)
- OPB/AP, Acton defeats Ramaswamy in Ohio (Nov. 4, 2026)