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Election Day Weather: Rain and Storms Forecast 

Forecasters expect rain across much of the Midwest and possible severe storms from Texas to the Mississippi Valley on Election Day. Here’s where, which close races are in the forecast area, and what research says about weather and turnout.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of October 29, 2026. Forecasts five days out can change significantly; check your local National Weather Service forecast before Election Day.

A storm system is expected to bring rain and thunderstorms to much of the central U.S. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, according to AccuWeather. Several states in the forecast area have competitive races for Senate or governor.

The forecast

Rain likely Tuesday: Parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan, including the Chicago, Detroit and Kansas City metro areas. Some places may see several hours of steady rain; others may get only a passing shower.

Possible severe storms:

  • Monday, from Texas to southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas, with risks of damaging winds, flash flooding and possibly a tornado.
  • Tuesday, shifting into parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana. Thunderstorms are also possible from the Texas and Louisiana coasts into Missouri and Illinois. AccuWeather listed Houston, Dallas and Oklahoma City as areas to watch.

Snow: Possible in parts of Colorado and Wyoming from Sunday into Tuesday, including the Denver area.

Mostly dry:

  • The Southeast should see storms move off the Atlantic coast by Tuesday. Atlanta, Charlotte and Miami may avoid long-lasting rain.
  • The Northeast has been in a long dry stretch, which AccuWeather expects to last through the weekend.
  • The West Coast, where Los Angeles, Seattle and San Francisco are forecast to be dry.

Close races in the forecast area

StateRaceWhere it stands
KansasSenate: Sen. Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)Rated Toss-up by Cook (Oct. 6) and Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Oct. 14); polls roughly tied
MichiganSenate: former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D)Open Democratic-held seat; recent polls show a close race
IowaSenate: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D)Open Republican-held seat; competitive
TexasSenate: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)Toss-up; Talarico slightly ahead in polling averages
TexasGovernor: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) vs. Gina Hinojosa (D)Decision Desk HQ gives Abbott a 68% chance; polling average Abbott 49.2%, Hinojosa 47.1%

Minnesota and Wisconsin, also in the rain zone, have competitive statewide races as well.

Does weather affect turnout?

Some, but usually not by much. The most cited study, by political scientists Brad Gomez, Thomas Hansford and George Krause, looked at presidential elections from 1948 to 2000. It found each inch of rain above normal lowered turnout by just under 1 percentage point, and each inch of snow by about half a point. The authors also found bad weather was associated with a higher Republican vote share. Later research has offered different explanations for why that pattern appears.

Three reasons the effect may be smaller this year:

  • Early voting. Many voters have already cast ballots. In Ohio, for example, about 45% of 2024 votes were cast early or absentee, and early in-person turnout this year is running well ahead of 2022.
  • Forecast uncertainty. Where and when rain falls on Tuesday may shift, and a few hours of showers differ from an all-day storm.
  • Most rain is expected to be ordinary, with severe weather concentrated in a narrower band.

If you’re voting in the forecast area

  • Check the forecast Monday night, and plan around the heaviest rain if you can.
  • Know your polling place and hours. In most states, anyone in line when polls close can still vote.
  • If severe weather hits, follow local warnings first. Election officials can sometimes extend hours or move polling places, usually announced through county election offices.

Sources

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