Fox News Moves Ohio Senate and Governor Races to Lean Democratic

Fox News’ final Power Rankings shifted Ohio’s Senate and governor’s races from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. Here’s how other forecasters rate them, what the polls show, and what early voting does and doesn’t tell us.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of October 27, 2026. Election Day is November 3. Ratings and averages change; check the linked sources for the latest.

Fox News moved both of Ohio’s top races, for U.S. Senate and governor, from Toss-up to Lean Democratic in its final Power Rankings of the cycle, published Tuesday. In the Senate race, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted. In the open race for governor, Democrat Amy Acton faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

The changes were among three Senate shifts toward Democrats in this round. Fox also moved South Carolina from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Why Fox moved the races

In the update, Fox News Power Rankings editor Rémy Numa pointed to favorable polling for Democrats and a national environment that has worsened for Republicans. He also argued that Ohio voters’ long familiarity with Brown, who won three Senate terms before losing in 2024, makes him harder for Husted to define. Fox noted that Republicans have been underestimated in Ohio polling before.

How other forecasters rate the races

ForecasterSenate (Brown vs. Husted)Governor (Acton vs. Ramaswamy)
Fox NewsLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Cook Political ReportToss-upLean Democratic (since Oct. 23)
Sabato’s Crystal BallToss-upLean Democratic
RealClearPoliticsToss-upToss-up

Fox is the first of these to move the Senate race out of the Toss-up category.

What the polls show

Senate: Brown leads Husted 48.2% to 44.9% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls from September 22 to October 22, a 3.3-point margin. Recent polls range from Husted +2 (Rasmussen Reports, October 12–14) to Brown +6 (Cook Political Report, Bowling Green State University/YouGov and CNN).

Governor: Acton leads Ramaswamy 48.7% to 44.3% in the RealClearPolitics average of polls from September 29 to October 19, a 4.4-point margin. Recent polls range from Ramaswamy +2 (co/efficient, October 5–6) to Acton +8 (CNN).

PollField datesSenateGovernor
InsiderAdvantageOct. 21–22Brown 47–44—
Fox NewsOct. 15–19Brown 52–47Acton 50–48
MaristOct. 15–18Brown 48–44Acton 50–43
Rasmussen ReportsOct. 12–14Husted 49–47—
Cook Political ReportOct. 9–13Brown 49–43Acton 49–44
co/efficientOct. 5–6Husted 46–45Ramaswamy 45–43

Brown’s average sits just under 50%, which matters in a state Trump carried by 11 points in 2024; RealClearPolitics’ race analysis notes that remaining undecided voters there probably lean Republican.

How Ohio got here

Ohio voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, then for Trump by about 8 points in 2016 and 2020 and by about 11 points in 2024. Brown lost his seat in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.6 points. Husted was appointed to the Senate in 2025 to fill the seat JD Vance left when he became vice president, so this is a special election for the rest of that term. Gov. Mike DeWine is term-limited, leaving the governor’s office open.

Paul Beck, a political scientist at Ohio State University, told Newsweek that Ohio’s rightward shift was driven largely by Trump’s appeal there, and that frustration with the Iran war, tariffs and the administration has made the state competitive again.

What early voting does and doesn’t show

Early in-person voting in Ohio has run far ahead of the 2022 midterm. A week into early voting, Democrats made up 41% of early voters and Republicans 28%, according to Secretary of State data reported by WCPO and Spectrum News. At the same point in 2024, Republicans led 36% to 26%.

Two cautions:

  • Party labels in Ohio are based on which primary a voter last voted in, not formal registration, so they’re an imperfect measure.
  • Republicans have shifted toward voting on Election Day. Republican strategist Bob Clegg told WCPO that early numbers “really tell you nothing” for that reason, while acknowledging the party has a turnout problem. Some analysts have noted the Democratic share has narrowed as early voting continues.

What to watch

  • Final polls, especially whether Brown or Acton gets above 50%.
  • Early voting, which ends November 1, and how the party mix compares with the first week.
  • Election Day turnout in rural counties, where Republicans need large margins to offset Democratic strength in cities and suburbs.

Sources

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