Where Living Costs Are Rising Fastest, and Where That Meets a Close Race

Gas, electricity, health insurance and housing costs have risen faster than earnings in many states this year. Using the Urban Institute’s new affordability tracker, here’s where the pressure is greatest and where it overlaps with competitive races on November 3.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of October 26, 2026. Election Day is November 3.

Household costs are a top concern for voters heading into the midterms, and the pressure isn’t the same everywhere. A new state-by-state tracker from the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan research organization, shows which costs have outpaced earnings and where. Here’s what it found, and where those costs overlap with some of this year’s closest races.

The national picture

  • Gas: AAA’s national average for regular gas was about $4.29 a gallon on October 26, compared with about $3.05 a year earlier. Since January 2025, gas prices have risen 33%, or about $1.02 a gallon, while nominal earnings grew 6%, according to the Urban Institute.
  • Mortgages: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was about 7.3% in Freddie Mac’s latest weekly survey, compared with about 6.2% a year earlier. [CHECK: confirm the October 22 Freddie Mac figure, reported elsewhere as 7.32%.]
  • Overall: Urban Institute research estimates that 49% of people in American families don’t have the resources to cover the expenses needed to live securely in their communities. That estimate is based on 2023 data.

During the 2024 campaign, President Trump promised to bring gas below $2 a gallon and, at a September 2024 rally, said mortgage rates could fall back to 2%. Gas and mortgage rates fell during parts of 2025 and early 2026, then rose after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February.

Costs by category

Electricity. Residential electricity bills rose faster than earnings in 31 states between June 2025 and June 2026, with customers paying about $5 more a month on average, according to the tracker. The average residential bill was about $171 a month in June. The highest averages were in Hawaii ($255), Arizona ($220), Texas ($210) and New Jersey ($208); the lowest were in Montana ($103), Wyoming ($106), and North Dakota and Washington ($114 each). [CHECK: confirm state figures against the tracker’s electricity chart.]

Health insurance. For people who buy coverage on the Affordable Care Act marketplace without subsidies, the benchmark Silver plan premium rose 22% between 2025 and 2026, to about $611 a month. The largest increases were in Arkansas (69%), Washington (45%), Tennessee (38%), Mississippi (38%) and Texas (35%). Premiums for employer-sponsored coverage rose about 5% on average over the same period, according to KFF.

Housing and child care. Over the past decade, rent and child care costs have risen faster than earnings. Compared with 2017, renters pay about $710 more a month, and families with two young children pay about $6,600 more a year for child care. Since January 2025, however, earnings have grown faster than rents in every state except eight: Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Spreading pressure. The tracker found that costs for housing, health care and groceries have risen faster than average in some places that were previously low-cost, including Rochester, New York, and the Atlanta, Chicago and Louisville, Kentucky, metro areas.

Where costs and close races overlap

Several states near the top of these lists also have competitive races this year:

  • Texas has among the highest average electricity bills and one of the largest marketplace premium increases (35%). It also has a closely contested U.S. Senate race and a competitive race for governor. In the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project’s October poll, the cost of living and the economy were voters’ most commonly named top issue.
  • Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin are among the eight states where rents have outpaced earnings since January 2025. Michigan has one of the closest Senate races in the country, and New Hampshire also has a competitive Senate race.
  • Arizona has one of the highest average electricity bills, and its race for governor is among those being closely watched.

Costs alone don’t decide elections, and voters weigh many issues. But in a Pew Research Center survey conducted September 28 to October 4, 74% of Americans said they were very concerned about gas and energy prices and 66% about housing costs. In the latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 21% approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living.

What each side is arguing

  • Democrats tie higher costs to the Iran war and the administration’s tariffs, and many of their candidates have made affordability central to their campaigns.
  • Republicans argue that energy prices will fall once the conflict with Iran ends, and point to lower prices for some goods. The administration has also announced targeted steps, including tariff exemptions for some Canadian goods and a pledge from major tech companies to supply their own power for data centers.

What to watch

  • Gas prices through Election Day. The national average has eased from its late-September peak but remains far above last year’s level.
  • ACA open enrollment, which typically begins November 1 and will show many marketplace shoppers their 2027 premiums days before the election.
  • State results in Texas, Michigan and New Hampshire, where cost pressures and close races overlap.

Sources

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