As of October 16, 2026. Every number below names its pollster, dates and margin of error.
Democrats lead both of Ohio’s top statewide races by 6 points in a new Bowling Green State University poll, conducted with YouGov. In the special election for U.S. Senate, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has 48% and Sen. Jon Husted (R) has 42%. In the race for governor, Amy Acton (D) has 50% and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) has 44%.
Both leads grew from 3 points in BGSU’s September poll. Other recent polls show a wider range, from a 1-point Republican edge to an 8-point Democratic lead, and BGSU’s lead researcher said he expects both races to finish within the margin of error. Election Day is November 3.
About the poll
BGSU’s Democracy and Public Policy Network surveyed 1,000 likely Ohio voters online from September 29 to October 9. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.95 percentage points. The September poll used the same design: 1,000 likely voters, September 1–10, margin of error 3.96 points.
The Senate race
The seat is on the ballot in a special election. Husted was appointed in 2025 to replace JD Vance when Vance became vice president. Brown represented Ohio in the Senate until he lost reelection in 2024.
| BGSU poll | Brown (D) | Husted (R) |
|---|---|---|
| October (Sept. 29–Oct. 9) | 48% | 42% |
| September (Sept. 1–10) | 48% | 45% |
[CHECK: Third-party and undecided shares for the Senate race, from the BGSU topline.]
Brown’s support held steady while Husted’s fell 3 points. Asked who they expect to win regardless of whom they support, voters split evenly, 48% Brown and 48% Husted. In September, more expected Husted to win, 53% to 45%.
The governor’s race
The seat is open because Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, is term-limited.
| BGSU poll | Acton (D) | Ramaswamy (R) |
|---|---|---|
| October (Sept. 29–Oct. 9) | 50% | 44% |
| September (Sept. 1–10) | 48% | 45% |
Libertarian Don Kissick has 4% in the October poll. Even though Acton leads among voters’ preferences, most voters still expect Ramaswamy to win, 55% to 43%. That expectation has narrowed from September, when it was 62% to 36%.
How it compares with other recent polls
Senate
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Brown (D) | Husted (R) | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU/YouGov | Sept. 29–Oct. 9 | 1,000 likely voters | 48% | 42% | ±3.95 |
| co/efficient | Oct. 5–6 | 925 likely voters | 43% | 44% | ±3.49 |
| CNN/SSRS | Sept. 29–Oct. 5 | 760 likely voters | 49% | 43% | ±4.5 |
| New York Times/Siena | Sept. 22–Oct. 1 | 616 likely voters | 49% | 46% | ±4.5 |
The co/efficient figures are from its full ballot, which also included Greg Levy (3%) and Libertarian William Redpath (1%), with 9% undecided. In a two-candidate question, the same poll had Husted 46% and Brown 45%.
Governor
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Acton (D) | Ramaswamy (R) | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU/YouGov | Sept. 29–Oct. 9 | 1,000 likely voters | 50% | 44% | ±3.95 |
| co/efficient | Oct. 5–6 | 925 likely voters | 43% | 45% | ±3.5 |
| CNN/SSRS | Sept. 29–Oct. 5 | 760 likely voters | 50% | 42% | ±4.5 |
| New York Times/Siena | Sept. 22–Oct. 1 | 616 likely voters | 49% | 45% | ±4.5 |
| YouGov | Sept. 18–30 | 3,777 likely voters | 48% | 44% | ±2.5 |
| Marist | Sept. 24–27 | 1,298 registered voters | 50% | 44% | ±3.8 |
| Big Data Poll | Sept. 25–27 | 680 likely voters | 47% | 48% | ±4.0 |
Most polls have the Democrat ahead in both races. The two exceptions, co/efficient and Big Data Poll, have the Republican ahead by 1 or 2 points. The poll aggregator Pollsmax labels co/efficient a Republican pollster.
What forecasters say
Decision Desk HQ rates the Senate race a toss-up. As of October 15, its forecast gives Brown a 51% chance of winning and Husted 49%, with a projected margin of about 1 point. The forecast blends polls, structural factors and prediction markets.
Robert Alexander, one of the four BGSU political science professors who direct the poll, cautioned that the Democratic leads are not secure. He said Republicans have finished strongly in recent Ohio statewide races and that he would be surprised if both contests didn’t end within the margin of error.
Why Ohio is competitive again
Ohio voted for the winner of every presidential election from 1964 to 2012. Since President Trump carried it in 2016, it has voted well to the right of the country. In 2024, Kamala Harris lost Ohio by about 11 points, while Brown lost his Senate race to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.6 points, 50.1% to 46.5%. Brown ran ahead of the top of his ticket that year, which is part of why both parties consider this race competitive.
The BGSU poll found an electorate unhappy with national conditions. President Trump’s job approval in the poll is 39% approve and 58% disapprove, and 60% say the country is on the wrong track. The economy was the most commonly cited issue (39%), followed by inflation (30%).
BGSU also reported that Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans, 59% to 41%, though the gap narrowed from September. [CHECK: The release doesn’t define this measure. Confirm the question wording in the BGSU topline before publishing.]
Ad fatigue
Ohio’s races have drawn heavy advertising, and voters say they’ve had enough. In the BGSU poll, 80% said they’ve seen a great deal (56%) or quite a bit (24%) of campaign ads. Most (60%) said the ads have been largely negative and have led them to tune out campaign advertising altogether. Only 6% said they want to see more ads before Election Day.
Voters were more likely to see the Republicans as running the more negative campaigns. In the governor’s race, 51% said Ramaswamy has run more negative ads, compared with 28% who said Acton has. In the Senate race, 46% said Husted, compared with 34% who said Brown.
What to watch
- Whether Husted’s support recovers. His share dropped from 45% to 42% between BGSU’s two polls while Brown’s held at 48%.
- Expectations versus preferences. Voters still expect Ramaswamy to win the governor’s race even though he trails in most polls. The gap has narrowed since September.
- New polls. One poll moving 3 points is within normal survey variation. Look for a pattern across several pollsters before calling it a trend.
Sources
- Bowling Green State University, “Democracy and Public Policy Network Expert Analysis on October 2026 Ohio Likely Voters Poll”
- Bowling Green State University, BGSU Poll (September 2026 results)
- co/efficient, Ohio U.S. Senate poll, October 2026
- CNN, “Two states Trump carried by double digits are now in play for the Democrats, CNN polls show” (Oct. 8, 2026)
- RealClearPolling, 2026 Ohio Senate special election polls
- RealClearPolling, 2026 Ohio governor polls
- Political Wire, “Democrats Lead in Ohio” (Oct. 16, 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ, 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate forecast
- Decision Desk HQ, “Sherrod Brown holds small lead in Ohio’s pivotal Senate race” (June 26, 2026)
- Decision Desk HQ, “Ohio will be a key battleground in 2026” (March 24, 2026)
- Pollsmax, Ohio Senate polling