As of October 13, 2026. Polls change; every number below names its pollster, dates and margin of error.
The race for Texas’ open U.S. Senate seat is within the margin of error in the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has 50% among likely voters and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has 47%, a 3-point gap inside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.34 points.
Libertarian Ted Brown has 1%, and 2% chose an unnamed “someone else.” Early voting begins Monday, October 19, and Election Day is November 3. The seat is open because Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff in May. Republicans have held it since 1988, and Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since then.
About the poll
The Texas Politics Project surveyed 1,200 registered voters from September 25 to October 5. The Senate results are reported among 861 of them identified as likely voters.
Partisan loyalty
Both candidates have consolidated their own party, Talarico somewhat more than Paxton:
- Democrats: 98% Talarico
- Republicans: 92% Paxton
- 2024 Harris voters: 98% Talarico, 1% Paxton
- 2024 Trump voters: 89% Paxton, 6% Talarico
The gap shows up in how each candidate’s own party views him. Among Democratic likely voters, 92% view Talarico favorably and 1% unfavorably. Among Republican likely voters, 69% view Paxton favorably and 15% unfavorably.
The poll also found a gap in enthusiasm. Among Democrats, 72% said they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in November, compared with 62% of Republicans.
Independents: a big margin, a small group
Independents favored Talarico 69% to 11%. That number needs context. The Texas Politics Project counts only independents who don’t lean toward either party, and they made up just 5% of the likely voter sample. That’s about 40 respondents, so the estimate carries a much larger margin of error than the poll overall.
Key groups
| Group | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|
| Women | 56% | 40% |
| Men | 42% | 54% |
| Latino | 54% | 41% |
| Urban | 54% | 41% |
| Suburban | 54% | 44% |
| Rural | 30% | 66% |
Subgroup results have larger margins of error than the full sample.
How it compares with other October polls
Of the nine polls released in October, seven have Talarico ahead, one has the race tied and one has Paxton ahead by half a point. In each of them, the gap between the candidates is within or near the poll’s margin of error. Several were fielded mostly in late September; the dates below are when interviews were conducted.
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Talarico | Paxton | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist | Oct. 8–11 | Likely voters | 47% | 45% | ±4.9 |
| ReconMR | Oct. 5–8 | 617 likely voters | 48% | 44% | [CHECK] |
| Trafalgar Group | Oct. 6–8 | 1,086 likely voters | 47.1% | 43.6% | [CHECK] |
| Quantus Insights | Released Oct. 11 [CHECK field dates] | 854 likely voters | 46.7% | 47.2% | [CHECK] |
| UT/Texas Politics Project | Sept. 25–Oct. 5 | 861 likely voters | 50% | 47% | ±3.34 |
| YouGov | Sept. 28–Oct. 5 | 3,625 likely voters | 50% | 44% | ±3.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | Sept. 21–30 | 615 likely voters | 51% | 45% | [CHECK] |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | Sept. 18–28 | 850 likely voters | 45% | 45% | ±4.5 |
| Fox News | Released Oct. 1 [CHECK field dates] | Likely voters | 51% | 49% | ±3.0 |
The poll aggregator Pollsmax labels Trafalgar Group and Quantus Insights as Republican-affiliated pollsters.
Is the race tightening?
The evidence is mixed. Two pollsters that surveyed Texas in both September and October found Talarico’s margin narrower in October:
- ReconMR: 49% to 43% in September, 48% to 44% in October.
- Marist: Among registered voters, Talarico’s lead slipped from 6 points in September to 4 points in October.
But the UT/Texas Politics Project’s 3-point margin matches its August poll, though that poll measured registered voters rather than likely voters. Comparing different pollsters with each other doesn’t show a trend either, because each uses its own methods and likely voter model.
What the polls agree on is that the race is close. In most of them, the gap is small enough that either candidate could be ahead.
What to watch
- Early voting turnout, starting October 19. In the UT/Texas Politics Project poll, 63% of Democrats said they plan to vote early in person, compared with 48% of Republicans. Republicans were more likely to say they’ll vote on Election Day (40% vs. 25%). Early returns may lean Democratic for that reason alone.
- Republican consolidation. Paxton’s support among Republicans (92%) trails Talarico’s among Democrats (98%). Whether that gap closes is likely to matter more than independents, who make up a small share of Texas likely voters.
- New polls. Expect more surveys before November 3. A single poll moving a few points within its margin of error isn’t a trend.
Sources
- Texas Politics Project, “Latest UT/Texas Politics Poll Finds Historic Levels of Competition in Texas Midterm Elections” (Oct. 13, 2026)
- Marist Poll, “2026 Midterm Elections in Texas, October 2026”
- ReconMR Texas Poll, October 2026 press release
- YouGov, Texas General Election 2026 likely voter toplines
- Siena Research Institute, NYTimes/Siena Poll of Likely Voters, Senate races (Oct. 3, 2026)
- UMass Lowell, “Texas poll: Paxton, Talarico tied in U.S. Senate race” (Oct. 8, 2026)
- Fox News Poll, Texas Senate (Oct. 1, 2026)
- Newsweek, on the Trafalgar and Times/Siena polls
- Pollsmax, Texas Senate polling
- WORLD, on the Quantus Insights poll