The Senate Races That Will Decide Control in 2026

Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 (the 47 includes two independents who caucus with Democrats). Thirty-five seats are on the ballot on November 3: the 33 regular seats plus special elections in Ohio and Florida. Because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties, Democrats need 51 seats for a majority — a net gain of four.

That math means Democrats must hold everything they have, including open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire and Jon Ossoff’s seat in Georgia, and then flip four Republican-held seats.

Where the forecasters stand

Forecasters currently see a close fight for the Senate. Decision Desk HQ’s model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning the chamber as of October 13. The Cook Political Report rates seven races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

State	Republican	Democrat	Seat now held by	Cook rating (Oct. 6)
Alaska	Dan Sullivan (inc.)	Mary Peltola	R	Toss-up
Iowa	Ashley Hinson	Josh Turek	R (open)	Toss-up
Kansas	Roger Marshall (inc.)	Adam Hamilton	R	Toss-up
Maine	Susan Collins (inc.)	Troy Jackson	R	Toss-up
Michigan	Mike Rogers	Abdul El-Sayed	D (open)	Toss-up
Ohio (special)	Jon Husted (inc.)	Sherrod Brown	R	Toss-up
Texas	Ken Paxton	James Talarico	R	Toss-up
New Hampshire	John E. Sununu	Chris Pappas	D (open)	Lean D
North Carolina	Michael Whatley	Roy Cooper	R (open)	Likely D

The toss-ups

Alaska. Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Rep. Mary Peltola, who in 2022 became the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. Alaska uses a top-four primary and ranked-choice general election, and this year’s ballot has an unusual twist: a second Republican candidate also named Dan Sullivan advanced from the August primary, along with Republican Gerald Heikes. With three Republicans and one Democrat on the ballot, conservative first-choice votes will be split before being transferred under ranked-choice rules.

Iowa. Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement opened the seat. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. Iowa voted for Trump by 13 points in 2024, so a competitive race here is a sign of how the national environment has shifted.

Kansas. Cook moved Sen. Roger Marshall’s race against Democrat the Rev. Adam Hamilton to toss-up on October 6. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, so a loss here would be a major upset.

Maine. Sen. Susan Collins, who has won five terms in a state that usually votes Democratic for president, faces former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson. Jackson became the Democratic nominee after the original nominee, Graham Platner, suspended his campaign. A Suffolk University poll released October 14 showed Jackson ahead 49% to 47%, within the margin of error.

Michigan. Sen. Gary Peters is retiring. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate race, is the Republican nominee. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won a contentious August primary over Rep. Haley Stevens. This is one of the seats Democrats must hold.

Ohio (special election). Sen. Jon Husted was appointed in January 2025 to fill the seat JD Vance left to become vice president. He faces former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost Ohio’s other seat in 2024.

Texas. Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. He faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas in more than 30 years.

The next tier

New Hampshire. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement left an open seat. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas faces former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu, who held the seat from 2003 to 2009. Cook moved the race from toss-up to Lean Democratic on October 6.

North Carolina. Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper faces former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley for the open seat Sen. Thom Tillis is leaving. Cooper has led in public polling for most of the race, and Cook now rates it Likely Democratic.

Georgia. Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic incumbent running in a state Trump won in 2024, which made his seat the GOP’s top target early in the cycle. Republican Rep. Mike Collins won the GOP nomination in a June runoff. Forecasters now rate the race as favoring Ossoff.

Nebraska. Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn, whom Nebraska Democrats chose to back rather than run their own candidate. If Osborn wins, which party he caucuses with could matter for control.

What to watch on election night

Polls close in North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio early in the evening (Eastern time), which will give the first real read on the night. Maine and New Hampshire follow. Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Michigan report later, and Alaska’s ranked-choice count can take more than a week to finish — so if the Senate comes down to Alaska, final control may not be known on election night.