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5 Republicans to Watch for 2028 After the Midterms

Republicans’ midterm losses have scrambled the early 2028 picture. Vice President JD Vance is still seen as the front-runner, but Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz and Glenn Youngkin are all part of the conversation. Here’s where each stands and what they’ve said.

By Quinn BallardPublished

As of November 9, 2026. No Republican has announced a 2028 campaign.

The first 2028 nominating contests are about 15 months away, and Tuesday’s Republican losses have opened up a debate about who should lead the party after President Trump. Here’s where five potential candidates stand. They’re listed roughly by how often strategists, polls and prediction markets mention them, not as a forecast. (Our earlier look at the prediction markets.)

JD Vance

Age: 42 | Current role: Vice president

The case for him: Vance is still the favorite in prediction markets and among many party activists, and Trump has privately told donors he wants Vance to succeed him, The Washington Post reported in August.

The challenge: He is tied to an administration whose war and economic record voters rejected Tuesday, and he campaigned heavily for Republicans this fall. Strategist Barrett Marson told The Hill that Vance “has to own every decision” of the administration.

What he’s said: The day after the election, Vance posted that “the reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.” Trump called the statement “largely true” but has repeatedly declined to say whether he’d endorse Vance. Vance says he hasn’t decided whether to run and will discuss it with his family.

Marco Rubio

Age: 55 | Current role: Secretary of state and national security adviser

The case for him: In an Emerson College/The Hill poll in August, Rubio ran slightly better than Vance in hypothetical 2028 matchups against several Democrats. In an Emerson poll of Republican primary voters, the two were essentially tied. He kept a lower profile in the midterm campaign.

The challenge: Rubio has said he would not run if Vance does, and he’s closely tied to the administration’s foreign policy, including the Venezuela operation.

What he’s said: After Bloomberg and The Independent reported last week that Rubio was considering leaving the administration to prepare a campaign, the State Department and White House called the reports false. Rubio told The New York Times he plans to serve through the end of Trump’s term and that he “literally will not talk about 2028 anymore.” Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) said he would support Rubio, according to Fox News Digital.

Ron DeSantis

Age: 48 | Current role: Florida governor (term-limited, leaves office in January)

The case for him: Florida Republicans held the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat Tuesday, one of the party’s few bright spots, and DeSantis has no role in the administration. His odds in prediction markets jumped after the election.

The challenge: He ran in 2024, struggled against Trump, and dropped out after the Iowa caucuses.

What he’s said: At a press conference Wednesday, DeSantis called the results “close to an extinction-level event” for Republicans in many parts of the country and said the party is in a “deep hole.” Tim Chapman of the conservative group Advancing American Freedom predicted DeSantis will become more openly critical of the administration.

Ted Cruz

Age: 55 | Current role: U.S. senator from Texas (up for reelection in 2030)

The case for him: Cruz finished second to Trump in the 2016 primary and has a national fundraising network. He has said Vance isn’t automatically the nominee and that he wants to “be part of the discussion.”

The challenge: His home state just elected Democrats to every statewide office on the ballot, leaving him as the only Republican statewide official in Texas.

What he’s said: Cruz called the midterms “a blue tsunami” and a “Watergate-level repudiation” on his podcast, and said Republicans lost ground with blue-collar, young, rural, Hispanic and evangelical voters. He has framed the party’s future around two divides: free-market conservatism versus big government, and American leadership abroad versus withdrawal. Chapman said Cruz is positioning himself with the party’s free-market wing.

Other senators sometimes mentioned include Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who has said he has “no intention” of running, according to The Hill.

Glenn Youngkin

Age: 59 | Current role: Former Virginia governor (2022–2026)

The case for him: Youngkin is seen as a potential candidate with appeal beyond the party’s base. He focused on education, parental rights and economic growth as governor, and in August launched a national school-choice group, Empowering America’s Parents. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who also leaves office in January, is mentioned for a similar lane.

The challenge: Strategists question whether Republican primary voters want a more traditional candidate right now.

What he’s said: Youngkin told Bloomberg in August that when asked about running, “I don’t anticipate being on the debate stage.” He has called Vance a “great nominee.”

What to watch

  • Vance’s decision, expected sometime after he discusses it with his family.
  • Whether Trump endorses anyone, and when.
  • Early primary polling in Iowa and New Hampshire, which will be a better guide than betting markets.

Sources

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