Two Big Wins For Trump

The White House is reportedly nearing trade agreements with Japan and India, as President Trump looks to build momentum on the global stage amid economic turbulence at home. People familiar with the talks say that while the framework of the deals is coming together, the final details may take months to fully resolve and the initial announcements may be light on specifics.

The moves come as Trump racks up a series of political and policy wins, following his 90-day pause on higher tariffs for most countries and his aggressive escalation against China, where tariffs now stand at 145 percent. That pause, announced April 9, helped ease immediate panic in financial markets, though uncertainty has continued to weigh on investors. Some economists have warned that the U.S. may still be headed toward a recession, and consumer confidence has dropped significantly over the past three months.

Facing pressure from markets, business leaders, and political allies, the Trump administration is eager to show progress. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 1,000 points on Monday and is on track for its worst April since 1932. Trade deals with Japan and India, even if loosely defined, are seen as a step in the right direction and a sign that the administration is delivering on its promises.

“There’s a range of economic indicators putting pressure on the market, and business leaders and investors are looking for signs of progress,” said Kevin Madden, a senior partner at the Penta Group consultancy. “Congressional allies want to be able to point to some broad frameworks being agreed to. At the very least, it helps provide some momentum, as well as some political breathing room, for the current policy approach.”

Still, some trade experts caution that moving too quickly on these deals might produce agreements that are more symbolic than substantial. Wendy Cutler, a former negotiator at the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, now with the Asia Society Policy Institute, warned that one-off deals might not bring long-term benefits.

“If the president thinks we have a lot of leverage with these tariffs, why not take the time and really think through our asks to these countries so we can conclude meaningful agreements that will be durable and continue to govern the trade and investment relationship for the years ahead?” Cutler said.

Sources briefed on the negotiations suggest that the agreements with India and Japan will be carefully crafted to position the U.S. as a preferred trading partner over China. However, the wording is expected to include strategic ambiguity to avoid outright commitments that could upset regional balances.

China, meanwhile, has reacted sharply. In a statement Monday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry warned that any agreement that pressures its neighbors to reduce economic ties with Beijing would be “counterproductive.” The ministry added that dealing with the U.S. under these conditions would be like “bargaining with a tiger for its skin.”

Despite the geopolitical friction, Trump appears undeterred. By pushing forward on bilateral deals, asserting trade dominance, and leveraging tariff threats, he continues to reshape America’s trade landscape and strengthen his political hand heading into future negotiations.