Trump’s Beautiful Bill Runs In To Big Trouble

President Trump’s ambitious legislative package dubbed his “big, beautiful bill” is on a collision course with the Senate parliamentarian, as Democrats prepare to challenge one of its most controversial elements: a move to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent.

The legislation, which narrowly passed the House, faces a critical test in the Senate, where Democrats are accusing Republicans of trying to sidestep procedural rules in order to lock in Trump’s signature tax overhaul. At the heart of the conflict is whether Republicans can justify extending the tax cuts without violating the Senate’s budget rules, specifically the Byrd Rule, which prohibits legislation passed under reconciliation from adding to the deficit beyond a 10-year window.

Democratic senators are warning that if Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) attempts to bypass the parliamentarian or override her guidance, it would set a dangerous precedent. They argue it would effectively weaken the Senate’s guardrails, chip away at the filibuster, and open the door to future rule changes by Democrats if they regain control of the chamber.

Republicans, however, insist the power lies with Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), not the parliamentarian. They claim Graham can set the budgetary baseline in a way that treats the Trump tax cuts as part of current law rather than new spending meaning any extension wouldn’t technically increase the deficit. If Graham rules the extension as budget neutral, it would give Republicans a green light to make the tax cuts permanent.

That’s exactly what Democrats expect to happen. With 53 seats in the Senate, Republicans appear poised to push the issue to a floor vote, possibly establishing a new procedural precedent a move similar to one Thune made just before the Memorial Day recess to repeal California’s EV mandate using the Congressional Review Act.

Democrats will try to force the parliamentarian to rule that extending the Trump tax cuts would worsen deficits beyond 2034, which would violate the Byrd Rule and make the measure ineligible for reconciliation a fast-track process Republicans are using to avoid a filibuster.

The outcome of this showdown could have wide-reaching consequences for both tax policy and Senate norms. If Republicans succeed, it would be a major win for Trump and his allies, who view the permanent extension of the 2017 tax cuts as a cornerstone of their economic agenda. But if Democrats block the maneuver, it could stall momentum on the bill and escalate tensions over how far either party is willing to go to change Senate procedure for political gain.