Special Poll
Florida state Senator Randy Fine has won the special election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, narrowly defeating Democrat Josh Weil in a race that unexpectedly became competitive in one of the state’s most reliably Republican areas. The result, confirmed Tuesday night by Decision Desk HQ, provides a measure of relief for Republicans who had grown increasingly anxious in the final stretch of the campaign.
Though the district which spans from South Daytona to St. Augustine has long been considered safely red, Democrats mounted an unusually strong challenge. Weil dramatically outraised Fine, pulling in nearly $10 million to Fine’s $1 million, and outspent him by a staggering $8.2 million to $895,000. Internal polling from GOP-aligned firm Fabrizio Ward even showed Weil with a narrow lead going into Election Day.
A Democratic victory would have sent shockwaves through national politics. The seat was previously held by National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, who, along with President Trump, carried the district by more than 30 points in the last election. Prior to Waltz, Gov. Ron DeSantis had represented the district before stepping down to run for governor in 2018.
In the final days of the race, Republicans threw everything they had behind Fine. He went up on TV with late-stage ad buys, and a flurry of high-profile GOP figures joined the push to energize conservative turnout. President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott, Rep. Byron Donalds, and even conservative commentator Ben Shapiro participated in tele-town halls or issued public endorsements encouraging voters to rally behind Fine.
Despite the win, the unexpectedly close margin is likely to raise concerns within Republican circles. The district was never expected to be competitive, and the GOP’s narrow victory could be seen as a warning sign for Trump and his allies, particularly as they face growing scrutiny over economic policies, internal party disputes, and controversial executive actions.
Democrats, meanwhile, are framing their performance as a win in its own right. While they didn’t flip the seat, they significantly cut into the GOP’s margin and forced Republicans to spend time and resources defending what should have been an easy hold. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin campaigned in the district over the weekend, and the DNC invested directly in the race an unusual move for such a deeply red district.
Though the seat remains in Republican hands, the race exposed vulnerabilities in Trump country and raises questions about whether Republican candidates even in districts the party has long dominated can continue to rely solely on past margins. As Trump continues to roll out controversial policies and lean into political fights, will even red-state voters remain as firmly in his corner as before?