Special Poll
House Republican leaders are growing concerned about maintaining their narrow majority as President-elect Trump selects GOP members for roles in his administration. Trump has already tapped Representatives Elise Stefanik of New York for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and Mike Waltz of Florida for National Security Adviser. Each appointment means one fewer GOP vote in the House, which could complicate the party’s ability to pass partisan legislation.
House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed cautious optimism, saying he doesn’t “expect” Trump to pull more House Republicans into his administration but acknowledged that the final decision rests with the president-elect. Currently, Decision Desk HQ projects Republicans with a slim lead of 219 seats over Democrats’ 210, with six races still uncalled, leaving the GOP majority on shaky ground. Both Stefanik and Waltz will need to resign their seats to assume their new roles, leaving Johnson to manage two vacancies, potentially for several months.
In the closely divided GOP conference, even two seats can make a substantial difference. Johnson highlighted the challenges of maintaining a majority, especially with unpredictable factors like illness or travel delays impacting attendance. He noted that Trump “fully understands” the importance of each vote, calling it a “numbers game” that requires careful management. “Every single vote will count,” Johnson emphasized, underscoring the logistical challenges of maintaining party cohesion in the House.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise shared similar sentiments, complimenting Trump’s choices but expressing a hope that no additional members are pulled from the GOP House ranks until special elections can take place. Scalise said Trump is “making really good, smart picks” but added, “hopefully no more until special elections can come.”
Several other House Republicans remain under consideration for key Cabinet positions, including Representative Mike Rogers of Alabama for Secretary of Defense, Representative Sam Graves of Missouri for Secretary of Transportation, and Representative Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania for Secretary of Agriculture. Each potential appointment would further reduce the GOP’s margin in the House, making it harder to pass legislation without Democratic support.
The timeline to replace Stefanik and Waltz will vary, with Stefanik’s New York seat requiring a prompt special election called by Governor Kathy Hochul. Hochul must schedule the election within 70 to 80 days following Stefanik’s official resignation. In contrast, Governor Ron DeSantis has more flexibility in setting the date for a special election to fill Waltz’s Florida seat, allowing him discretion in timing.
As Republicans navigate this delicate balance, every decision on appointments and replacements could have significant implications for their legislative strategy in the months ahead.