A new poll is shedding light on what could happen if two of the most high-profile presidents in modern U.S. history Donald Trump and Barack Obama were allowed to face off in a third-term election. While such a matchup is currently unconstitutional, President Trump has recently reignited speculation by suggesting he might seek a third term despite the clear limits set by the 22nd Amendment.
Over the past few weeks, Trump has openly floated the idea of staying in power beyond the two-term maximum. Speaking to reporters late last month, he said he’d welcome a head-to-head race with Obama. “I’d love that. Boy, I’d love that,” Trump said when asked about a hypothetical matchup, if the Constitution were changed to permit it. Though altering the Constitution is a massive legal undertaking requiring overwhelming support in Congress and from the states, Trump hasn’t ruled it out. He hinted there may be “methods” available that could, in theory, make a third term possible.
“A lot of people want me to do it,” Trump told NBC in a recent interview. “But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.” When asked how he could get around the two-term limit, Trump added vaguely, “There are methods by which you could do it.”
Despite that confidence, new polling shows that a hypothetical Trump vs. Obama rematch wouldn’t be in the former’s favor. According to a recent survey conducted by Overton Insights, 53 percent of registered voters said they would support Barack Obama in a theoretical third-term bid, compared to 47 percent who said they would back Trump.
While such a matchup remains purely speculative under current law, the poll signals that nostalgia for Obama still runs deep among a majority of voters. It also underscores the continued divisiveness of Trump’s presidency, even among a base of voters that helped return him to the White House.
Legally speaking, the odds remain slim. The 22nd Amendment clearly states: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice…” and any change would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-fourths of the states.
Still, Trump’s musings and the poll numbers that followed show the idea of a third term is resonating in political discourse. Whether it’s constitutional or not, voters appear to already be imagining what that battle would look like.