Special Poll
A new poll reveals a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with both candidates locked in a dead heat nationwide. Each commands 47% support from likely voters across the country, indicating an extremely close contest as the election approaches. However, in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, Harris holds a slight advantage, leading Trump 50% to 46%, according to a joint poll from media outlets including The New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Among registered voters nationwide, Trump has a small lead over Harris, with 47% to her 46%. These results are consistent with previous polling, showing only slight fluctuations in voter preferences. Notably, this data was collected just before a reported second assassination attempt on Trump, which may influence future polls.
The poll also highlights significant demographic divides. Harris has a strong lead among women, with 53% to Trump’s 41%, and is particularly popular with younger voters (18-29), receiving 56% of their support compared to Trump’s 33%. She also enjoys overwhelming backing from Black voters, with 77% supporting her compared to Trump’s 14%.
Conversely, Trump holds substantial leads among men (52% to Harris’s 39%) and white voters (53% to 43%). He also has a slight edge among voters aged 65 and older, leading Harris 50% to 44%. In Pennsylvania, these demographic patterns largely hold, with Harris leading among women, younger voters, and Black voters, while Trump leads among men and white voters.
One significant finding is the increase in Harris’s favorability ratings in Pennsylvania, which have risen to 51%, up from 42% in July. Nationally, 48% of likely voters view her favorably. Trump has also seen an improvement, with 47% of likely voters now viewing him favorably, a rise from earlier in the year.
These polling results provide a snapshot of an extremely competitive race, with each candidate holding strong in specific demographics. The poll, conducted from September 11-16, surveyed 2,437 likely voters nationwide, including 1,082 in Pennsylvania, with a margin of error of 3 to 3.8 percentage points.
As the election draws nearer, these numbers suggest the race remains fluid, with both candidates needing to solidify their support in key demographics.