Special Poll
Recent polls show that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas by a margin of 4 to 12 percentage points, challenging the view of some Democrats that Texas could shift from its longstanding Republican dominance. According to various surveys, Trump’s performance in Texas is crucial, as a loss here could critically damage his campaign.
Recent national polls indicate a tight race, with a predictive model from FiveThirtyEight estimating Trump’s chances of winning at 51% compared to Harris’ 49%. Trump has previously secured Texas in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. The most recent Emerson College poll, which surveyed 815 likely voters in Texas from October 18 to 21, showed Trump leading by 7 points, a significant improvement from an earlier poll in September.
Additionally, an ActiVote survey noted Trump ahead by 12 points, and a Morning Consult poll recorded a 4-point lead for Trump. YouGov’s survey for the Texas Politics Project also showed Trump ahead by 5 points.
Bookmakers such as Bet365 and William Hill are offering odds heavily favoring Trump to win Texas in the upcoming election.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Taylor Rogers commented on the impact of Harris’ border policies on Texas, attributing local crimes to these policies and asserting Texas as a stronghold for Trump. The state is also watching Senator Ted Cruz’s re-election race closely, with significant funds being raised by both parties, highlighting the competitive nature of Texas politics this election cycle.