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Trump Springs a Surprise on Biden

Former President Trump is currently leading President Biden in seven pivotal battleground states, based on recent surveys conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill. Trump holds narrow leads—within the margin of error—in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, signaling a highly competitive race that could hinge on these states.

In North Carolina, Trump leads by approximately 5 points, holding 47 percent support compared to Biden’s 42 percent. In Arizona, Trump’s advantage is 4 points, at 48 percent to Biden’s 44 percent. Trump also has a 3-point lead in Georgia, at 47 percent to 44 percent, and leads by 2 points in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where he has 47 percent compared to Biden’s 45 percent. Michigan shows Trump with a slight 1-point lead, at 45 percent to Biden’s 44 percent.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted, “The presidential election landscape in swing states has remained fairly stable since tracking began last November by Emerson and The Hill.”

As the number of undecided voters decreases, Biden has closed the gap in Georgia and Nevada, though Trump continues to maintain a slight advantage in these swing states. The inclusion of leaners—undecided voters leaning towards a candidate—further boosts Trump’s numbers, giving him about a 4-point lead in Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina, and a 3-point lead in Wisconsin and Georgia.

The presence of third-party candidates seems to affect Biden more negatively than Trump in five states—Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, the impact is evenly split between Biden and Trump in Arizona and Michigan.

Both Biden and Trump have secured enough delegates to become their respective parties’ presumptive nominees, setting the stage for a rematch of their 2020 contest this November. They are actively campaigning across these crucial states, as the election outcome is likely to be determined by just a handful of these battlegrounds.

Recent polls continue to show a tight race, with Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s polling averages showing the candidates less than a point apart, with Trump slightly ahead. When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is considered, Trump tends to perform better, although NBC News polling suggests that third-party candidates might harm Trump more than Biden.

With the election about six months away, Trump faces legal challenges as his criminal trial, the first for a former president, began earlier this month in Manhattan. This trial revolves around a hush money payment made during the 2016 election cycle. A majority of Republican voters in the polls stated that a guilty verdict would increase their likelihood of supporting Trump in 2024.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill surveys included 1,000 registered voters from each state and were conducted from April 25-29, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percent.


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