Special Poll
The Trump administration’s unprecedented decision to deny a delivery of water to Mexico is sending shockwaves through diplomatic and environmental circles, as experts warn it could jeopardize future cooperation over water rights in a region already strained by drought and climate change. But supporters of the move say it’s a clear signal that President Trump is showing Mexico who’s boss and making it clear that the United States will no longer be taken for granted in cross-border agreements.
The denied request marking the first time in 81 years that such a delivery has been blocked, concerned a special appeal from Mexico to receive additional Colorado River water for the city of Tijuana. The U.S. State Department justified the decision by accusing Mexico of failing to meet its treaty obligations to supply water to Texas from the Rio Grande, as laid out in the 1944 water-sharing treaty between the two nations.
While Trump’s administration insists the move is about enforcing accountability, some experts are warning that it could have long-term diplomatic consequences. Stephen Mumme, a political scientist at Colorado State University and a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, called the decision both irrational and damaging to ongoing negotiations over the Colorado River’s increasingly limited resources.
“If I were one of the seven Colorado River basin state commissioners, I’d be really ticked off right now,” Mumme said, referencing the fragile and complex talks currently underway between the U.S. and Mexico. “This is not designed to encourage Mexican cooperation, and Mexico can drag its feet in any number of ways.”
Under the 1944 treaty formally known as the Treaty on the Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, the United States agreed to deliver Colorado River water to Mexico, while Mexico committed to send a share of Rio Grande water back to the U.S., particularly to Texas. The treaty also created the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), a joint agency tasked with overseeing water delivery, infrastructure, and dispute resolution between the two countries.
Trump’s decision is seen by many of his supporters as a power play designed to remind Mexico of its obligations and shift the balance of control back toward the U.S. After years of what they see as lopsided agreements, the administration is pushing for stricter enforcement of the treaty and refusing to bend when Mexico fails to hold up its end of the deal.
Critics, however, argue that the decision could erode trust, worsen already delicate relations, and trigger retaliatory measures by Mexico that could delay or disrupt other binational projects. They also warn that water diplomacy is a zero-sum game in regions like the Southwest, where every drop matters and even symbolic moves can lead to serious fallout.
Still, for Trump and his allies, this is about more than water. It’s about control. The refusal to deliver the requested water sends a message to Mexico and the world that under this administration, the U.S. isn’t afraid to play hardball when it comes to international agreements. And for Trump, it’s yet another opportunity to assert dominance and prove that when it comes to critical resources like water, America calls the shots.