A new poll conducted by Fabrizio Ward, the firm co-founded by Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign pollster, reveals that most Trump voters are not on board with efforts to cut Medicaid especially if the goal is to fund tax cuts. The results show that even within Trump’s base, there is strong resistance to reducing benefits in a program that many see as essential.
“There’s really not a political appetite out there to go after Medicaid to pay for tax cuts,” said Bob Ward, a partner at the firm. “Medicaid has touched so many families that people have made up their minds about what they don’t want to see cut.”
The survey, conducted among 1,000 registered voters between March 20 and 24, found that two-thirds of swing voters also opposed cutting Medicaid as part of the GOP’s broader budget package one that includes tax reductions, increased military spending, and heightened border security. These results suggest that proposals to trim Medicaid could backfire politically, particularly in tight districts and among undecided voters.
The timing of the poll is significant, as House Republicans are currently grappling with how to meet an aggressive $880 billion savings target. Medicaid is seen as a major source of possible cuts, especially under the reconciliation process that allows certain legislation to bypass the Senate filibuster. However, resistance within the party is growing, with some Republicans warning that slashing Medicaid could alienate key voters, including those who typically back Trump.
The Congressional Budget Office has already made clear that reaching the GOP’s deficit reduction goals would likely require cuts to large, mandatory spending programs like Medicaid. That’s putting pressure on Republicans to find savings without harming essential services.
The polling, commissioned by the Modern Medicaid Alliance a coalition of insurers, patient advocates, doctors, and hospital groups reflects the effectiveness of Democrats’ messaging, which argues that Republicans are targeting health care for the poor to deliver tax cuts for the wealthy.
Trump himself has pledged not to sign any bill that includes reductions to Medicaid benefits, a promise he reiterated to Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) in order to secure his support for a recent Senate budget resolution. That promise is complicating the political landscape for House Republicans, who are also considering possible savings from energy and technology policies, and exploring cuts to the federal share of Medicaid costs in states that expanded the program under the Affordable Care Act.
Even some Republicans admit that while targeting fraud and waste in the Medicaid system is politically safe, it likely won’t deliver the kind of savings needed to hit budget targets. Ward noted that while voters are open to reducing inefficiencies, there’s no support for cutting benefits outright. “The idea that we’re going to take away people’s health insurance and that’s not going to be a political problem I don’t know where that comes from,” he said.