Special Poll
According to a Wall Street Journal poll, former President Donald Trump is ahead of President Joe Biden in six out of seven critical swing states. The poll attributes Trump’s lead to economic discontent and concerns regarding Biden’s age, with Trump trailing Biden only in Wisconsin by three points in a contest that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
For Biden to secure reelection, he must hold onto the “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which he won in 2020. Currently, Trump is ahead by two points in Michigan and three points in Pennsylvania, with a notable number of undecided voters in these areas.
Trump is also leading in Georgia (by three points), Nevada (by four points), and Arizona (by five points), states that Biden previously won. The presence of third-party and independent candidates, who garnered about 15 percent of the vote in the poll, could play a crucial role, with Kennedy attracting support from both Democratic and Republican voters.
Although Kennedy, who had a brief stint in the Democratic nomination race, is popular among anti-establishment voters due to his outsider stance and skepticism of government policies, especially his anti-vaccine rhetoric.
In terms of policy issues, Trump is favored for his handling of the economy, border control, and inflation, while Biden is viewed more favorably on abortion rights. The Democrats are focusing on reproductive rights, particularly IVF, as a significant campaign issue, especially in Florida, where a strict six-week abortion ban is set to be enacted.
Despite Trump’s economic favorability, many poll respondents expressed satisfaction with their state’s economy rather than the national economy. This sentiment was especially pronounced in Georgia and North Carolina, where there was a significant discrepancy between the perception of the state and national economies.
The poll, which involved 600 registered voters for the election data and 300 for economic opinions, was conducted in mid-March, presenting a margin of error of 4 percent for the three-way race and 5.6 percent for the economic data.