Special Poll
Republican pollster Frank Luntz recently discussed how independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of former President Trump could influence the 2024 election, particularly in key battleground states.
Luntz explained that although Kennedy’s popularity has waned since Vice President Harris became the leading Democratic candidate, his remaining supporters might still be enough to sway close races in Trump’s favor. Luntz estimated that Kennedy’s backing could give Trump a crucial 1% boost in swing states, which might determine the outcome in tightly contested areas.
“That 1% could be everything if it’s in the swing states,” Luntz remarked during his appearance on NewsNation’s “On Balance” with Leland Vittert. He added that Kennedy’s initial support, which once drew double-digit numbers, was largely due to taking votes away from Joe Biden. With Biden no longer in the race, Harris has taken his place, and Kennedy’s support has dropped significantly. Luntz believes that the remaining support for Kennedy now leans toward Trump.
According to Luntz, a significant portion of Kennedy’s supporters are likely to either abstain from voting or choose Trump over Harris, which could be decisive in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
A mid-August poll from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project showed Harris leading or tied with Trump in six out of seven swing states, holding a narrow 1-point lead in key states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
Kennedy, who initially ran as a Democrat before switching to an independent run in October, had enjoyed strong poll numbers but has recently seen them decline. Despite suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump, Kennedy plans to stay on the ballot in most red and blue states but will remove his name from ballots in battleground states to avoid being a spoiler.
Luntz also pointed out that the media might have portrayed Kennedy differently if he had endorsed Harris instead of Trump. He emphasized the importance of understanding the motivations behind how information is presented during the final stages of the election campaign.
Luntz further argued that Trump could gain an edge by focusing on issues like immigration and inflation. However, if the election conversation shifts to character traits, Harris might have the advantage. Luntz stressed that language and messaging will play a crucial role in how the candidates connect with voters as the election approaches.