Gasoline prices could rise by as much as 25 cents per gallon in the coming weeks due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to Patrick De Haan, a fuel market analyst at GasBuddy.com. As of Friday, the national average for regular gasoline was $3.13 per gallon.
President Trump, who made lowering energy prices a centerpiece of his re-election campaign last year, has begun publicly expressing frustration that global oil markets are not aligning with his administration’s priorities. During a bill-signing ceremony on Wednesday, he directed his irritation toward Energy Secretary Chris Wright over the recent uptick in oil prices, which began climbing amid reports of a potential Israeli strike. “I was going to call and really start screaming at you,” Trump told Wright, half-jokingly but clearly agitated.
Presidents from both parties have long faced political backlash when fuel prices climb, and Trump is no exception especially with the economy already under pressure from his expansive tariff policies. Some analysts warn that a significant increase in gasoline prices could tip the country closer to recession. Bob McNally, who runs the energy consultancy Rapidan Energy and previously served on the National Security Council, said the danger is less about inflation and more about the broader economic impact. “Geopolitical price spikes pose a bigger risk of recession than inflation in my view,” he said. “The White House should be worried.”
While Trump still has some cushion for now average gas prices are 33 cents lower than a year ago and down $1.88 from their peak in June 2022 analysts warn that could change quickly if the conflict escalates. Andy Lipow, head of Lipow Oil Associates, said that if Israel targets Iran’s oil infrastructure, prices could spike by an additional $7.50 per barrel. If Iran responds by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, crude prices could surge to $100 a barrel.
“Iran knows full well that President Trump is focused on lower energy prices,” Lipow noted in an email. “Any move that disrupts Middle Eastern oil supplies and drives up gasoline and diesel prices in the U.S. will hurt him politically.”
The challenge for the White House is that Trump has limited tools to contain rising prices. His main options are to use his public platform and diplomatic channels to urge both Israel and Iran to de-escalate the situation before it inflicts greater economic damage.
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