Special Poll
Pollster Nate Silver’s latest election forecast indicates a slight advantage for former President Trump over Vice President Harris as we move into the Labor Day weekend. Although Harris currently holds a 3.8-point lead in national polls, her chances of securing the Electoral College have diminished according to Silver’s model.
Silver now gives Trump a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’s 47.3%. This shift is partly attributed to the model’s adjustment for the convention bounce, which often temporarily inflates a candidate’s polling numbers following their party’s convention. Silver suggests that Harris’s numbers may be temporarily boosted following the Democratic National Convention, similar to how Trump’s numbers saw a spike after the Republican National Convention. He notes that if Harris can maintain her lead for a few more weeks, the model might start showing her chances improving again as it becomes more confident that the bounce period has passed.
Despite the national polling lead, Harris’s chances in key battleground states remain close. A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading by an average of 2 points across seven crucial states, but only by 1 point when focusing on likely voters in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—well within the poll’s margin of error. Additionally, a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill suggests that Trump and Harris are essentially tied in these battleground states.
Harris’s rise in the polls has been significant since she replaced President Biden as the Democratic nominee, narrowing the gap that Trump held while running against the incumbent president. However, the tight race in battleground states highlights the uncertainty that still looms over the 2024 election, making every poll and shift in public opinion critical as the campaigns continue to evolve.