Special Poll
President Trump’s approval rating continues to serve as a closely watched measure of how the public is responding to his second-term leadership and the numbers are beginning to raise concerns for his party.
Despite having won key battleground states like Florida and Texas in the 2024 election states that together contribute a significant 70 Electoral College votes his slipping approval ratings in both could pose challenges for the GOP as they gear up for the 2026 midterm elections. Any sustained drop in support may also influence how willing Republican lawmakers are to back Trump’s broader agenda during his second term.
Recent data shows the president is seeing negative net approval ratings in both Texas and Florida. In Texas, a Civiqs poll conducted as of May 7 shows 47 percent approve of the job he’s doing while 50 percent disapprove, putting him at a net -3. Notably, his numbers began trending downward following the announcement of his “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April.
That said, Republican support within the state remains rock-solid. The poll shows 90 percent of Texas Republicans still approve of Trump’s performance, while just 6 percent disapprove. Meanwhile, among Democrats, the disapproval rate is 97 percent, with only 2 percent offering support.
In Florida, the figures are similarly close. As of May 7, the Civiqs poll shows Trump with a net approval of -1, with 48 percent in favor and 49 percent against. Until recently, he had maintained positive numbers in the Sunshine State. Still, 88 percent of Florida Republicans say they approve of his job performance, and 8 percent disapprove. Among Democrats, just 2 percent approve, while a staggering 97 percent disapprove.
The same polling shows Trump’s approval rating has dipped into negative territory in all seven swing states that were crucial to his 2024 win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states now reflect a broader national trend of slipping support.
Trump has brushed off the latest polling data. In an April 28 Truth Social post, he claimed, “The Polls from the Fake News are, like the News itself, FAKE! We are doing GREAT, better than ever before.”
Still, some experts view the numbers differently. Allan Lichtman, a historian known for accurately predicting presidential elections, noted that early low approval ratings typically signal midterm losses for a sitting president’s party. “A lot can still happen, although the chances of a significant increase in approval ratings for Trump are dim,” he said.
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, emphasized that while individual poll shifts may seem small, the overall trend points to a widespread decline in Trump’s support. “There’s almost no sign of good news for Trump in these polls,” he explained. “The overall picture is not pretty. Even states that supported him, like Texas and Florida, are showing signs of erosion, and that’s a real warning sign for Republicans heading into 2026.”