Donald Trump is facing a significant surge in disapproval ratings, echoing the political climate of November 2018, when Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives. The latest polling data suggests that voter dissatisfaction with the president is once again gaining momentum, which could have a major impact on his ability to advance his agenda and influence upcoming elections.
Polling expert Harry Enten noted that Trump’s current disapproval rating has reached 43 percent, matching the levels last seen during the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained 41 seats. With more than a year remaining before the next major election cycle, these numbers raise serious concerns about how Trump’s leadership is being perceived across the country.
Trump entered his second term with relatively strong approval ratings. For a time, he appeared more popular than ever. But recent events, especially growing unrest around the economy, have shifted public opinion. A key turning point came last week when Trump announced a sweeping new tariff program, known as “Liberation Day,” which included a 10 percent baseline tariff on nearly all imports. The policy triggered a sharp market downturn, with Wall Street suffering its worst single-day drop since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2 percent, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 349 points.
Trump defended his strategy, insisting the tariffs are necessary medicine for a broken trade system and arguing that countries have long exploited the U.S. economy. He claimed that tariffs are bringing in billions in revenue while also helping reduce inflation points he made on his Truth Social account.
Still, many economists and financial experts remain skeptical. Market analyst Jim Cramer compared the market fallout to the 1987 Black Monday collapse, warning of a possible repeat. University of Southern California professor Jonathan Aronson pointed out that large states like California and Texas, which rely heavily on imports, are likely to suffer significantly under Trump’s tariff regime.
Former Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin warned that the tariffs could act as a massive tax increase on consumers and potentially trigger stagflation a toxic mix of slow growth, high unemployment, and rising inflation. Goldman Sachs has since increased its recession forecast for 2025 to 35 percent, while JPMorgan Chase now places the odds at 40 percent.
The ripple effects of these economic concerns are showing up in public opinion surveys. A recent Fox News poll found that 71 percent of Americans believe a recession is likely this year. A separate Marquette University Law School poll showed that 58 percent of respondents think tariffs hurt the economy and believe Trump’s policies will make inflation worse.
As economic anxiety grows, so too does public resistance. Harry Enten pointed out that online searches for the word “protest” are up 1,200 percent compared to a year ago, surpassing even the surge seen in 2017 following Trump’s first inauguration. Recent special election results suggest that Democrats are gaining momentum again, outperforming their 2024 numbers by an average of 19 points.
That momentum was evident earlier this month when Susan Crawford won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, defeating her conservative opponent by nine points. Meanwhile, protests erupted nationwide last week, targeting Trump and Elon Musk, who currently leads the Department of Government Efficiency. Over 1,300 rallies were held, with tens of thousands marching in Washington, D.C., to oppose policies they say benefit billionaires while harming everyday Americans.
Political analysts now believe that Trump is facing renewed opposition, potentially stronger than during his first term. The growing resistance could have major implications for the 2026 midterms, where Democrats are aiming to flip both chambers of Congress currently controlled by Republicans.
Trump’s approval rating is expected to continue fluctuating in the weeks ahead, especially as global events and domestic economic conditions evolve. But one thing is clear: his grip on public support appears to be slipping just as he needs it most.