Special Poll
The number of immigrants being deported from the U.S. has declined during President Trump’s first days in office compared to the daily average at the end of Joe Biden’s term, according to early data reviewed by Axios. This shift provides a mixed picture of how Trump’s promise to remove “millions” of unauthorized immigrants and strengthen border security is playing out so far.
On one hand, illegal border crossings have dropped significantly since Trump took office, leading to fewer individuals being apprehended at the border and designated for quick removal. Trump has celebrated this decline, stating in a Truth Social post that “The Invasion of our Country is OVER.” On the other hand, efforts to rapidly remove large numbers of undocumented immigrants already living in the U.S. have been slowed by existing immigration laws, limited resources, and ongoing legal challenges. Many of those arrested well within the country’s interior are entitled to a court hearing, but the immigration court system is heavily backlogged.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removals of undocumented immigrants declined by 6.5% during Trump’s first two full weeks in office, according to data from the ICE detention management database and collected by the nonpartisan Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC). From January 26 to February 8, the U.S. removed an average of 693 undocumented immigrants per day, compared to 733 per day between October 1 and January 25, which included the final months of the Biden administration. Arrests by ICE also dropped nearly 5% in early February compared to the daily average during Biden’s last fiscal year in office. In those first eight days of February, ICE arrested an average of 724 people per day, while the fiscal year 2024 average under Biden was 759.
A senior White House official emphasized that overall, Trump is pleased with the pace of enforcement efforts but intends to push forward aggressively. “He’s happy with it, but we’re not going to take our foot off the gas. It’s all gas, no brakes, is what we say,” the official said. However, the administration’s messaging around deportation numbers has been somewhat inconsistent. Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, argued that removals were not down but did not provide supporting data. She cited that about 55,000 people had been removed from the U.S. by various enforcement agencies from January 21 to February 27. This figure likely includes deportations, administrative returns, and enforcement returns, but it remains below the monthly average of 67,700 removals in fiscal year 2024 under Biden.
In February of last year, total removals exceeded 69,000, according to the Office of Homeland Security Statistics. The administration has urged Congress to provide additional funding to increase enforcement capabilities. Border czar Tom Homan has been meeting with law enforcement groups, appearing in media interviews, and lobbying Capitol Hill to gather support for Trump’s key immigration policy. To expand detention capacity, the administration has modified agreements with private prison contractors like CoreCivic and Geo Group. Technology firms providing data and tracking services are also engaging with the administration on how to enhance enforcement efforts by improving information-sharing across agencies.
Trump’s push for stricter immigration enforcement contrasts with Biden’s approach, which, despite facing criticism from both immigration advocates and hardliners, resulted in higher deportation figures in the months leading up to his departure. The decline in removals since Trump’s return to office raises questions about whether Biden’s administration was, in fact, deporting more illegal immigrants than Trump is so far. Some argue that Biden’s efforts to balance enforcement with legal pathways led to a more streamlined process, while Trump’s administration, despite its tough rhetoric, is still ramping up operations.
Critics of the administration warn against focusing solely on ICE arrest numbers, arguing that broader immigration policy effectiveness should be considered. “Everybody’s caught up in the Dow Jones-ing of ICE arrest numbers which proves very little,” said Jason Houser, former ICE chief of staff during Biden’s administration. With the administration still in the early stages of its renewed immigration crackdown, it remains to be seen whether enforcement numbers will increase dramatically in the months ahead or whether bureaucratic and legal hurdles will continue to slow efforts.