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Trump Conviction Takes Toll On His Campaign

Poll Reveals Significant Minority of Republicans and Independents Want Trump to Drop Out Post-Conviction

One of the first polls conducted after a New York jury found Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records reveals that a significant minority of Republicans and Independents want him to withdraw from the presidential race. Additionally, a majority of registered voters approve of the jury’s decision.

Why it matters: The Morning Consult poll, conducted on Friday, provides early insights into voter reactions to this unprecedented situation.

By the numbers:

  • 54% of registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the guilty verdict, while 34% “strongly” or “somewhat” disapprove.
  • 49% of Independents and 15% of Republicans believe Trump should end his campaign due to the conviction.
  • The race remains closely contested nationally, with Biden at 45% and Trump at 44% in a head-to-head matchup.

Reality check: Despite agreeing with the guilty verdict, more voters think Trump should receive probation (49%) rather than prison time (44%).

  • 68% of registered voters believe the punishment should be a fine.
  • The poll also highlights a deep distrust of the criminal justice system.

Additional findings:

  • Three in four Republican voters said the verdict made them feel less confident in the system.
  • 77% of GOP voters, along with 43% of Independents, believe the conviction was politically motivated to damage Trump’s career.

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