Republicans are growing increasingly uneasy about a contentious Senate primary brewing in Texas, fearing it could complicate their efforts to maintain control of the Senate in the upcoming election cycle.
A recent poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund showed incumbent Senator John Cornyn trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 16 points in the Republican primary. However, in a general election matchup, the same poll found Paxton narrowly losing to former Representative Colin Allred, a Democrat who is weighing a Senate bid.
Cornyn and his supporters warn that a Paxton victory in the primary would force the party to pour significant resources into a race that should otherwise be a safe Republican seat. They argue that doing so could jeopardize the GOP’s broader strategy to protect and expand their Senate majority.
“The main concern is that nobody wants to spend a bunch of money in Texas where we should be able to win a race,” Cornyn said, referencing the poll that showed Paxton slightly behind Allred. “That would be the first time since 1994 that a Democrat could win, so we’re not going to let that happen.”
Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has outlined a goal of growing the GOP’s Senate majority to 55 seats. That plan includes flipping Democratic-held seats in Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire while defending competitive Republican seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Several Republicans believe that Paxton’s nomination would disrupt that plan. They see his vulnerabilities as a general election candidate especially given his legal troubles and controversial profile as a liability in a race that would otherwise be a lock for the GOP.