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Swing States Give Trump The Edge

Former President Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, in several key battleground states, according to recent polls. The new survey, released by Emerson College Polling and The Hill on Thursday, shows Trump ahead of Harris by 5 points in Arizona (49 percent to 44 percent); by 2 points in Georgia (48 percent to 46 percent); by 1 point in Michigan (46 percent to 45 percent); and by 2 points in Pennsylvania (48 percent to 46 percent). The two are tied in Wisconsin, each with 47 percent.

In most states, except Arizona, the polling results are within the survey’s margin of error, indicating that the race is very close and Trump and Harris could be tied in these critical states.

Harris is performing notably better than President Biden in these battleground states. Compared to a similar survey earlier this month, she outperforms Biden by 5 points in Georgia, 4 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 3 points in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

An aggregate of national polls compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ shows Trump leading Harris by roughly 48 percent to 46 percent. This margin is slightly narrower than the national polls showing Trump leading Biden by 47 percent to 43 percent.

Since receiving Biden’s endorsement on Sunday, Harris has been active on the campaign trail, starting with a rally in Milwaukee on Tuesday.

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” explained Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Harris’s numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

The polling indicates that young voters are shifting toward Harris, with her support increasing significantly in key states: by 16 points in Arizona, 8 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and 1 in Wisconsin since earlier this month.

Among potential vice presidential picks from key swing states, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro received the highest support from Democratic voters in his state at 57 percent, followed by Arizona Senator Mark Kelly at 42 percent, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer at 36 percent.

The poll also brings good news for Senate Democrats: Senators Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), along with Representatives Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), are leading their Republican opponents by 4 to 5 points.

Democrats have quickly rallied around Harris following Biden’s announcement that he would not seek reelection. With just weeks before the Democratic National Convention, high-profile Democrats have endorsed Harris, strengthening her campaign.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey was conducted from July 22-23, polling 800 respondents each in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in each state. In Pennsylvania, 850 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, and in Wisconsin, 845 respondents were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.


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