Musk Wants To Replace Trump As President

Elon Musk’s New Political Party Could Split GOP Vote, Experts Say But Success Unlikely

Elon Musk’s recently launched “America Party” is making waves, but political experts say it’s unlikely to achieve lasting success or major influence ahead of the 2026 midterms. While the new party could fracture the right-wing vote and open a path for Democratic gains, analysts remain skeptical about Musk’s ability to build a viable third party in time to impact the elections in a meaningful way.

Why It Matters

Musk, who supported President Trump during the 2024 campaign and briefly led the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), fell out with Trump over the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” On July 4, Musk announced the creation of the America Party after a social media poll showed over 65% support for the idea. Though ineligible to run for president due to being born in South Africa, Musk said the new party would “give you back your freedom.”

What to Know

Third parties in the U.S. rarely succeed and must meet steep ballot access requirements in each state. While Musk has significant name recognition and financial backing, experts argue that building a full political infrastructure including candidates, staff, volunteers, and legal teams will take more than tweets and money.

Still, some warn that the party’s real influence may come from vote splitting. If the America Party siphons off support from Republican candidates in tight races, it could shift the balance of power in Congress, particularly in the House and Senate where GOP margins are slim.

What Experts Are Saying

Carl Tobias of the University of Richmond said Musk hasn’t shared enough concrete details for the America Party to be seen as a serious force, but noted it could still cause “greater uncertainty” in the 2026 midterms. He added that Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to take control of both chambers and Musk’s disruption could make that easier.

Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, told Newsweek that Musk would need significant time, focus, and resources to pull off a functioning national party. “It’s one thing to tweet about it,” Lucas said. “It’s far different to organize it.”

He warned that if Musk is the only one funding and driving the effort, it could come off more like an “ego project” than a serious political movement.

Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert at the University of Portsmouth, added that third parties typically have short lifespans in U.S. politics. He said Musk’s effort would likely split the Republican vote, giving Democrats an edge in a system where most races are winner-takes-all.

What’s Next

Details about the America Party’s structure, leadership, and candidates remain unclear. While some political figures have reportedly shown interest, the party’s real impact if any won’t be known until the 2026 midterms draw closer.