2024 General Election Scenario: A Close Race Between Biden and Trump
In a neck-and-neck hypothetical matchup for the 2024 general election, President Biden and former President Trump are almost evenly matched among registered voters. According to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, Biden garners 47% support, while Trump is close behind with 46%. This tight race mirrors the results from Quinnipiac’s August and September national polls.
Breaking it down by party lines, both candidates have solid backing from their respective parties. Biden is supported by 94% of Democrats, and Trump by 94% of Republicans. Among independent voters, the split is nearly even: 45% favor Trump, while 44% lean towards Biden.
The Impact of Independent Candidates
The dynamics shift when independent candidates enter the fray. If environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., runs as an independent, the support distribution changes significantly. Biden’s support drops to 39%, Trump’s to 36%, while Kennedy attracts a notable 22%.
Independents show a diverse preference in this scenario, with 36% supporting Kennedy, 31% backing Trump, and 30% favoring Biden.
Adding progressive activist Cornel West to the mix creates a four-way race, further diversifying voter support. In this scenario, Biden receives 36% support, Trump 35%, Kennedy 19%, and West 6%.
Among independent voters, Kennedy leads with 33%, followed by Trump at 30%, Biden at 27%, and West at 8%. This scenario illustrates a fragmented electorate, with independent candidates significantly impacting the traditional two-party race.