Kemp Backtabs Trump

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s decision not to run for Senate in 2026 has thrown a wrench into Republican plans to protect their slim three-seat majority. By stepping aside, Kemp has avoided what would have likely been a bruising and costly battle for a seat the GOP lost six years ago, preserving his clean electoral record and keeping the door open for a possible 2028 presidential run.

Had Kemp entered the race, he would have started as a strong favorite against Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff. But that path to victory would not have been guaranteed, especially given the potential for a chaotic primary. Speculation has already begun about Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene possibly jumping in, which could fracture the state’s Republican base and make the nomination process unpredictable.

Kemp staying out doesn’t mean Ossoff is secure, but it does raise the stakes. Republicans now face a more complicated and expensive challenge. Without a high-profile, broadly appealing candidate like Kemp, they’ll need to navigate a volatile primary field, invest heavily, and hope for a favorable political climate.

This also highlights a broader issue for the GOP: finding strong candidates in a year that’s shaping up to be increasingly difficult. With the party currently holding the White House and facing sagging approval ratings, traditional midterm trends suggest Democrats could be well-positioned to go on offense. Core Democratic voters appear energized, and the historical pattern of the party in power losing ground during midterms looms large.

Looking ahead to the 2026 elections, only about 40 of the 435 House districts are expected to be truly competitive. Those will likely be split relatively evenly between both parties, but the real action will come down to the 20 most closely contested swing seats. If current trends continue, Democrats may be on track to not just hold their ground but potentially gain 10 to 15 House seats, setting up a contentious fight for control of Congress.