Special Poll
Harris Holds Slim Lead Over Trump in New Reuters/Ipsos Poll
Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 2 points in one of the first polls following President Biden’s decision to withdraw from his reelection bid.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday, shows Harris with 44 percent support compared to Trump’s 42 percent among registered voters. This result is within the poll’s margin of error but indicates an improvement for Democrats compared to a similar poll taken before Biden’s announcement.
In a poll released a week earlier, Trump led Biden by 2 points and was tied with Harris, both within the margin of error.
An aggregate of polls by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ currently shows Trump leading Harris by 2 points, 48 to 46 percent.
In a recent three-way race poll including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris leads by 4 points, with 42 percent support compared to Trump’s 38 percent and Kennedy’s 8 percent.
The pollsters noted improvements for the Democratic candidate since Biden endorsed Harris on Sunday. They found that 56 percent of registered voters believe Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to just 22 percent for Biden. For Trump, 49 percent of respondents shared this view.
Harris’s favorability rating among all adults increased from 39 percent to 44 percent, while her unfavorability rating dropped from 53 percent to 50 percent. Trump’s favorability remained unchanged, with 41 percent viewing him favorably and 55 percent unfavorably.
Following the poll’s release, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio warned of a “Harris Honeymoon,” predicting a surge of positive media coverage for the vice president. He anticipates this will energize Democrats temporarily, narrowing Trump’s lead or allowing Harris to gain on him.
Fabrizio added that Democrats and media outlets might use these numbers to claim a fundamental shift in the race, but he argued that it hasn’t fundamentally changed.
The poll was conducted from July 22 to 23 among 1,241 U.S. adults, including 1,018 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3 points for the entire sample and 3.3 points for registered voters.