Special Poll
Harris Leads Trump in New Poll: Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a recent national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.
Head-to-Head Match-Up: The poll, released on Tuesday, shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points, 49% to 46%, in a direct match-up among likely voters.
Multi-Candidate Race: In a scenario with additional candidates, Harris maintains her 3-point lead at 47%, with Trump at 44%. Jill Stein of the Green Party and Libertarian Chase Oliver each secured 1%, with no other candidates receiving more than half a percent.
Representing Change: When voters were asked which candidate better “represents change,” Harris edged out Trump with 46% choosing her and 44% selecting Trump. A small percentage (2%) said both candidates represent change, while 4% said neither, and another 4% were unsure or refused to answer.
Key Demographics: Harris’s strongest support for representing change came from nonwhite voters and younger likely voters:
- Nonwhite voters: 61% viewed Harris as the candidate for change, while 29% saw Trump that way.
- Voters under 30: 58% viewed Harris as the change candidate, compared to 34% for Trump.
Poll Trends: This marks the first time since July that Harris has led in the Times/Siena survey. Last month, after a debate between the two candidates, the poll showed them tied at 47%.
Race Tightening: As the election approaches, less than a month away, the contest remains historically close. The outcome is expected to be determined by seven key battleground states, where voter margins are still slim and could tilt the race either way. In most states, however, voter preferences are largely set.
National Polling Average: Other national polls also show a close race, with Harris leading by an average of 3.4 points, 50% to 46.6%.
Poll Details: The Times/Siena poll was conducted between Sept. 29 and Oct. 6 among 3,385 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.