Special Poll
GOP House Majority Could Temporarily Drop Below 218 Seats: What It Means
The Republican majority in the House of Representatives may shrink temporarily to 217 seats, raising challenges for passing legislation early next year. Experts say this slim margin will require strong party unity to move forward on any initiatives.
Democrat Adam Gray’s win over Republican John Duarte in California’s 13th Congressional District finalized the 2024 House races on Tuesday. With Gray’s victory, Democrats will hold 215 seats next year, while Republicans will maintain a narrow 220-seat majority.
However, this majority could drop as some GOP members leave Congress to join President-elect Donald Trump’s administration. Matt Gaetz has already resigned after being nominated for attorney general, a position he later withdrew from. Additionally, Representatives Mike Waltz of Florida and Elise Stefanik of New York are expected to take on roles as national security adviser and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, respectively.
With 218 votes required to pass legislation in the House, any resignations or absences could make securing a majority more difficult. If all three resignations occur, the House would temporarily stand at 217 Republicans to 215 Democrats until special elections fill the vacancies. This means Republicans cannot afford any defections or absences if they want to pass bills, as a 216-216 tie would halt progress.
“At the very least, the GOP leadership will need to be meticulous in counting votes and ensuring members are present for roll calls,” explained Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia.
He added that the narrow majority could lead to tense negotiations and prolonged votes. “Against a unified Democratic opposition, even a few GOP absences or disagreements could cost them. Leadership may have to keep roll calls open longer, persuade reluctant members to vote, or even wait for delayed flights from distant districts like California.”
This razor-thin margin means every vote will count in the coming months, placing significant pressure on Republican leadership to maintain discipline and cohesion within the party.