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GOP Civil War In Texas To Hurt Trump?

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is considering a primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn (R) in what could become a high-stakes battle between two factions of the Texas Republican Party.

Paxton revealed in an interview that he is actively exploring a bid for Cornyn’s Senate seat in 2026, speaking with various groups across Texas. He expects to make a final decision in the coming months. If he runs, the primary could become one of the most expensive and fiercely contested Senate races in the country.

This potential challenge highlights the ongoing divide within the Texas GOP, where the establishment wing and hardline conservatives continue to battle for dominance.

“The right wing is ascendant,” said Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser, who worked on Cornyn’s 2014 campaign. While moderates still hold seats in state government, he noted that the overall political climate in Texas is moving further right and remains strongly pro-Trump.

Paxton has long been rumored as a potential Senate candidate, and tensions between him and Cornyn have been building for some time. Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, would be seeking his fifth term.

Paxton has frequently attacked Cornyn, labeling him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) and criticizing his support for issues like aid to Ukraine and bipartisan gun control legislation passed after the Uvalde school shooting in 2022. Cornyn, in turn, has pushed back against Paxton, citing the legal troubles that have followed him throughout his tenure.

After Paxton accused Cornyn of caring more about Ukraine’s borders than America’s, Cornyn responded by accusing him of “pushing Russian propaganda.” Their feud escalated when Paxton opposed Cornyn’s potential bid for Senate Republican Leader, calling him “anti-gun” and “anti-Trump.” Cornyn, who eventually endorsed Trump in the 2024 GOP primary only after he won New Hampshire, has struggled to maintain credibility among Trump’s most ardent supporters.

Cornyn has also pointed to Paxton’s legal troubles as a liability, stating, “Hard to run from prison, Ken.”

Paxton’s legal issues date back to 2015, when he was indicted on securities fraud charges for allegedly soliciting investments without disclosing he was being paid by the company involved. After nearly a decade of delays, he reached a settlement in 2024, agreeing to pay $300,000 and perform community service in exchange for dropping further proceedings.

Despite these controversies, Paxton remains politically strong. He survived a 2023 impeachment attempt in the Texas House, where lawmakers—including many Republicans—voted to remove him over allegations he misused his office to benefit a real estate developer. However, he was acquitted in the state Senate, further fueling the divide within the party.

Republican strategists in Texas believe Paxton is likely to enter the race, setting up a brutal primary battle.

“If you go to a local Republican Party meeting, you’ll hear people say Cornyn isn’t conservative enough,” said GOP strategist Vinny Minchillo. “Many still resent his past support for gun reform.”

However, Cornyn is far from an easy target. He has never lost an election, won his last GOP primary with 60% of the vote, and maintains a well-funded campaign infrastructure. His 2020 reelection saw Democrats targeting Texas, yet he still won comfortably.

Paxton, on the other hand, has never faced a well-funded primary opponent like Cornyn, according to Minchillo. “He’s a target-rich environment, and Cornyn isn’t afraid to hit back.”

That said, Paxton has proven resilient, fending off primary challenges and legal battles to maintain his role as attorney general. In 2022, he defeated George P. Bush, a member of Texas’ powerful Bush family, signaling the continued decline of the old Republican establishment in Texas.

Strategist Charlie Kolean sees the momentum shifting toward hardline conservatives, which could benefit Paxton. He noted that Cornyn has been closely tied to the GOP establishment, while Paxton has branded himself as a Trump-aligned “disrupter.”

“If Cornyn makes a misstep on Trump’s agenda, Trump could endorse Paxton,” Kolean said. “And if that happens, it could be a major game-changer.”

Texas political observers say the battle over the party’s future continues, and Paxton may see this as the perfect opportunity to challenge Cornyn directly. If he enters the race, the 2026 Senate primary could become one of the most heated in Texas history.


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