The potential rematch between former President Trump and President Biden in 2024 could hinge on voter frustration, according to experts. Despite many voters expressing dissatisfaction with the current presidential options, this sentiment might lead to a decrease in voter turnout in the next election. Experts suggest that the decision for many voters may not be about choosing between Trump or Biden, but rather if they should participate in the voting process at all.
William Howell, a professor of American politics at the University of Chicago, notes that with both candidates being well-known, the critical question for most is not who to vote for, but whether to vote at all. Voter turnout has been consistently high in recent presidential elections, with about two-thirds of eligible voters participating in the 2020 election, the highest in over a century.
However, a Quinnipiac University poll indicates that about half of registered voters are seeking alternative candidates for the upcoming election. Republican strategist Karl Rove predicts a decline in voter turnout for 2024, breaking the trend of increasing participation, with the exception of 2012.
Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) expressed concerns about voters potentially staying home if they feel neglected or taken for granted. She warned that 2024 could mirror the voter dynamics of 2016.
Republican strategist Charlie Kolean believes a lower turnout would favor Trump more than Biden, as many votes in 2020 were cast against Trump rather than for Biden. He emphasizes the importance of excitement in driving voter turnout and suggests that ballot measures could play a crucial role in mobilizing voters.
Ballot measures, especially on issues like abortion following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, have become significant. States with abortion-related measures have generally seen high turnout and victories for Democrats, even in Republican-leaning states like Ohio.
Democratic strategist Jared Leopold views the abortion issue as a major motivator for Democratic and swing voters, predicting that the presidential election will become a referendum on the future of abortion in America.
Ernest McGowen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Richmond, highlights the importance of perceived differences between candidates in driving voter interest. He notes that both Trump and Biden have distinct, well-established records that could help differentiate them to voters.