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Biden Panics After This Trump News

Trump Leading Biden in Key Battleground States, According to Recent Polling

Former President Donald Trump holds an edge over President Joe Biden in head-to-head general election matchups across five of six critical battleground states, according to polling data released on Monday.

The poll, conducted by The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer from April 28 to May 9, shows Trump ahead among registered voters in Pennsylvania (47% to 44%), Arizona (49% to 42%), Michigan (49% to 42%), Georgia (49% to 39%), and Nevada (50% to 38%). The only state where Biden leads is Wisconsin, where he has a slight edge of 47% to 45%.

Among likely voters, the results are similar, with only minor shifts. In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the difference between Trump and Biden remains within 1 to 2 percentage points. In Michigan, Biden’s support increases by 5 points among likely voters, giving him a narrow lead of 47% to 46%. However, in Wisconsin, Trump pulls ahead among likely voters, leading Biden 47% to 46%.

When considering third-party and independent candidates, the overall picture does not change significantly. Trump maintains his lead over Biden, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holding third place in Arizona (42% to 33% to 10%), Georgia (39% to 31% to 9%), Michigan (38% to 36% to 9%), Nevada (41% to 27% to 12%), and Pennsylvania (40% to 36% to 10%). In Wisconsin, Trump and Biden are tied at 38% each, with Kennedy receiving 9% support. Other third-party candidates consistently poll below 2% in these matchups.

The polling results are largely consistent with those from October 2023, when Trump also led Biden in five states, with Wisconsin being the exception where Biden had stronger support.

In recent months, the Biden campaign has intensified its voter outreach efforts, while Trump has faced multiple legal challenges. A Democratic pollster for Biden’s campaign highlighted the variability in polling data, emphasizing that some surveys show Biden ahead of Trump.

“The only consistency in recent public polls is inconsistency. These results need to be weighed against the 30-plus polls that show Biden up and gaining – which is exactly why drawing broad conclusions about the race based on results from one poll is a mistake. The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll. These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over,” stated Geoff Garin, a pollster for Biden’s campaign.

The new polling surveyed 4,097 registered voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points for the overall sample. Each state’s margin of error ranged from 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania to 4.6 percentage points in Georgia.

Nationally, the polling average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows Trump and Biden nearly tied, with Trump at 44.7% and Biden at 44.6%. Including Kennedy in the polling average, Trump holds a slight lead at 41.1%, compared to Biden’s 40.3% and Kennedy’s 8%.


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