Special Poll
According to a recent poll by The New York Times/Siena, President Biden has slightly closed the gap with former President Trump in what promises to be a closely contested rematch of the 2020 election. The survey, which was released on Saturday, shows Trump with a slim lead of 1 point over Biden, garnering 46 percent to Biden’s 45 percent. This represents a shift from a previous poll in February by the same pollsters, which had Trump leading by 5 points, at 48 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.
The dynamics change slightly when third-party candidates are included, with Biden receiving 40 percent of the support and Trump 42 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. secured 2 percent in this scenario.
The poll also revealed that 7 percent of respondents do not plan to vote, and 6 percent are undecided. Around 2 percent expressed their intention to vote for candidates other than Biden, Trump, Kennedy, or other third-party options.
Demographically, Trump found stronger support among male voters, and his largest age group of supporters is those aged 49 to 64 years. Conversely, Biden was more popular with voters aged 65 and older.
Among racial demographics, nearly 70 percent of Black voters indicated they would vote for Biden, compared to 16 percent for Trump. White voters tended to support Trump over Biden, 53 percent to 39 percent.
Biden also had the edge among college-educated voters, with approximately 55 percent of respondents with a bachelor’s degree favoring him over Trump, who received 39 percent support from this group. Biden was additionally more popular among people of color, with 50 percent of Hispanic respondents and just under 60 percent of voters identifying as races other than white, Black, Hispanic, or Latino supporting him.
Among independent voters, a key demographic for the upcoming election, Trump maintained a lead with 47 percent support compared to Biden’s 42 percent.
The Times/Siena poll, conducted from April 7-11 among 1,059 voters, has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.