Special Poll
The odds of the U.S. slipping into a recession this year have jumped sharply, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, who now places the likelihood at 40 percent, up from just 15 percent at the start of 2025. Zandi is pointing directly at President Trump’s escalating tariff policies and sweeping budget cuts through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as major reasons for the growing risk.
Though it’s still early to fully measure the economic fallout from these moves, Zandi warned on social media that as long as the tariffs and DOGE-driven cuts continue, the chances of a recession will keep rising. His comments come as many Americans are already grappling with high inflation, sluggish consumer spending, and falling confidence in the economy.
Trump campaigned on promises to lower the cost of living and bring prosperity back to American workers, but the economic strategies now in play particularly aggressive import taxes on goods from top U.S. trading partners are, according to many economists, driving up prices for ordinary households rather than easing their burden.
In a post published Sunday on X, formerly Twitter, Zandi explained, “I’m raising my odds that a recession will begin sometime this year to 40 percent, up from 15 percent at the start of the year.” He cited concerning economic signals, including a sharp decline in consumer confidence, weak spending trends, and inflation that refuses to cool.
Zandi made clear that the 25 percent tariff on all imported cars and parts, announced recently by the Trump administration, along with expected retaliatory tariffs from trade partners, is only adding fuel to the fire. He also pointed to federal funding cuts through DOGE as a drag on economic activity, saying both policies together are worsening the overall outlook.
Still, he stopped short of predicting a guaranteed downturn. Zandi believes that a 2025 recession is “less likely than not,”thanks in part to strong labor market fundamentals low layoffs and continued job and income growth which are keeping the economy afloat for now.
But with economic pressure building, and more tariff-related announcements expected soon, economists and voters alike are beginning to ask a difficult question: How long can this trade war continue before it tips the U.S. over the edge?And more urgently should Trump bring these tariff battles to an end before real damage is done?